TURKISH BANKS - Banking monthly – October 2019
The BRSA reported that the sector’s net profit surged by 55% m-m to TRY5.1b in October, thanks to state bank (SB) earnings that saw a massive 2.3-fold jump m-m.
We believe that profitability will be strong in 4Q such that we envisage a 9% q-q expansion in net earnings for banks under our coverage in 4Q. In particular, the expansion in TRY L/D spread, the downward trend in swap costs and benign opex will support profitability. The only drawback may stem from CPI-linked bonds as the October-October y-y inflation will be limited to 8.55%, while the banks have 10-11% CPI assumptions in their financials. On top of that, we believe banks should attempt to clean their loan books for a fresh start to 2020 by allowing some stage-2 loans to migrate into stage 3. Based on our models, Isbank stands out with a 25% q-q 4Q earnings growth backed by higher spreads and contracting opex, while Vakifbank is set to post 87% q-q earnings rise in 4Q backed by higher spreads and lower repo costs. The banks that we recommend ahead of 4Q are Isbank, Vakifbank and Garanti.
Akbank is a commercial bank. Co. operates in five segments: Retail banking offers a range of retail services, such as deposit accounts, loans, credit cards, insurance products and asset management services; Corporate and Small and Medium Size Enterprises banking provides financial solutions and banking services; Treasury Activities conducts regional and foreign currency spot and forward transactions, bonds and other domestic securities; Private banking offers banking and investment transactions for upper-income groups and the International banking provides services for foreign trade financing and Turkish Lira clearances, and money transfers through agent financial institutions.
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi is a private banking group based in Turkey. Co. operates as an integrated financial services group in every segment of the sector including corporate, commercial, SME, payment systems, retail, private and investment banking together with subsidiaries in pension and life insurance, leasing, factoring, brokerage, and asset management. Co. provides a range of financial services to 13 million customers through a distribution network of 994 domestic branches; 6 foreign branches in Cyprus, Luxembourg and Malta; 3 international representative offices in London, Dusseldorf and Shanghai with more than 4,152 ATMs, a Call Center and internet.
Turkiye Halk Bankasi (Halkbank) is a banking and financial services company based in Turkey. Co. offers corporate and commercial banking products and services to a range of customers, from individuals to large corporations. Co.'s operations include: consumer and retail banking, consumer loans, credit and debit cards, deposit and overdraft accounts, payroll services, corporate and commercial banking, budget loans, credit line facilities, cash management, investment banking, brokerage, factoring, leasing and insurance services, and tradesmen/SME banking. As of Dec 31 2011, Co. operates 771 branches and had total assets of TL92,160,657,000.
Turkiye Vakiflar Bankasi (Vakifbank) is a banking and financial services company based in Turkey. Co. offers products and services that cover corporate, commercial, investment and small-scale enterprise banking as well as the retail and private banking sectors. Co. also provides financial leasing, portfolio management, real estate, insurance and factoring services through its financial participations. Co.'s deposit products include time and demand deposits, as well as loans comprise spot loans, foreign currency indexed loans, consumer loans, automobile and housing loans, working capital loans, gold loans, foreign currency loans, eximbank loans, and pre-export loans.
Yapi Ve Kredi Bankasi is a financial services group. Co. serves its customers through its retail banking segment comprising of individual banking, Small and Medium Size Enterprises banking and card payment systems, corporate and commercial banking as well as private banking and wealth management segments. Co.'s operations are supported by domestic subsidiaries in asset management, brokerage, leasing and factoring as well as international banking subsidiaries in the Netherlands, Russia and Azerbaijan. As of Dec 31 2014, Co. had total assets of TL194.96 billion and total deposits of TL107.63 billion.
TEB Investment equity research analysts and strategist team consists of 8 analysts with an average finance sector experience of 15 years and special focus on international investors.
With our 6 equity research analysts we cover 93 companies across 21 sectors, reflecting 80% of the total market capitalization of all BIST companies and 86% of the BIST100 companies. Our strategy team provides in depth top-down and bottom-up market views with insight on FX and bond markets by publishing sectoral and strategic reports both in English and Turkish.
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