Ünlü&Co

ÜNLÜ & Co is a financial services group and Turkey’s leading provider of investment advisory and asset management products and services.

ÜNLÜ & Co’s extensive knowledge and experience is the foundation of its solid local market position combined with the ability to deliver world-class standards of service in order to design and provide products and solutions that uniquely address its clients’ needs. Headquartered in Istanbul, ÜNLÜ & Co has a staff of more than 350 high caliber professionals, working together for the aim of making ÜNLÜ the leading provider of financial products and servicesfor the entire region. ÜNLÜ & Co provides world class investment advisory and asset management solutions to a diverse client base ranging from domestic and international investors to leading corporates, multinationals and financial institutions.

Koray Pamir ... (+2)
  • Koray Pamir
  • Mehmet Yigit Yorulmaz

Monthly Refining Margin Data (January 2026)

In January, within mid distillates, diesel cracks (in USD/bbl.) registered at 20.5 (down 2.5 m/m, up 3.7 y/y) and jet fuel cracks registered at 21.1 (down 2.0 m/m, up 7.3 y/y) based on Tupras provided data. Gasoline cracks came to 12.4 (down 5.2 m/m, up 0.8 y/y). HSFO cracks were realized at negative 15.8 (down 1.3 m/m, down 5.1 y/y). Differentials were wider m/m. Shares outperformed BIST-100 by 6% and rose by 30% in USD over the past one month. European refining economics softened in January, ...

Erol Danis ... (+4)
  • Erol Danis
  • Koray Pamir
  • Mehmet Yigit Yorulmaz
  • Sevgi Onur

Turkish Equity Research - 4Q25 Preview

4Q25 earnings season to kick off today: 4Q25 earnings season for companies under our coverage is set to start today with Turkiye Sigorta and last until March 11th. Based on our projections, banks will show 38% y/y EPS growth (up 4% q/q) in 4Q25. As for non-financials, in USD terms, we estimate 31% y/y EPS growth (down 51% q/q), while estimating 18% y/y growth in EBITDA (down 19% q/q). Note that to facilitate comparisons, we calculated the overall figures for non-financial companies in USD terms,...

Erol Danis ... (+4)
  • Erol Danis
  • Koray Pamir
  • Mehmet Yigit Yorulmaz
  • Sevgi Onur

Turkey Strategy: 2026 Outlook - Improving trajectory; Cautious optimis...

Macro outlook for 2026 is relatively balanced and predictable: Entering 2026, Turkey’s macroeconomic outlook offers a relatively balanced and predictable framework, with CPI expected to decline from 30.9% in 2025 to 23.9%, supported by positive real interest rates and fiscal discipline. The CBRT is projected to implement gradual rate cuts, ending the policy rate at ~30%, while maintaining a cautious stance amid persistent credibility gaps in inflation expectations. FX stability remains a priorit...

Erol Danis ... (+2)
  • Erol Danis
  • Salih Koseoglu

Turkish Non-life Insurance Sector - Robust Earnings Despite Rate Cuts

Investor sentiment on the non-life insurance sector has cooled and sector multiples have derated, as Turkey’s easing cycle has progressed. However, we believe this pessimism is overdone. Despite lower policy rates, we do not expect a substantial deterioration in investment income of the sector, as the sector’s steadily expanding and compounding asset base should continue to underpin returns. We forecast strong ROEs in 2026, which warrants a higher P/BVs for the sector. Importantly, non-life insu...

Koray Pamir
  • Koray Pamir

View on Regulatory Changes - Distribution WACC increased for FY26-30

EPDK published the awaited 2026–30 distribution return reset in the Official Gazette: The Board decision is dated 11 Dec 2025, published in the official gazette and effective 1 Jan 2026–31 Dec 2030. The key revision is the gross real, pre-tax “reasonable return” parameter set at 14.46% which is the core WACC/return input used in the distribution revenue requirement. Net WACC, which is the comparable figure to the prevailing net WACC of 12.30% (2021-2025) has not been disclosed but could material...

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