Ünlü&Co

ÜNLÜ & Co is a financial services group and Turkey’s leading provider of investment advisory and asset management products and services.

ÜNLÜ & Co’s extensive knowledge and experience is the foundation of its solid local market position combined with the ability to deliver world-class standards of service in order to design and provide products and solutions that uniquely address its clients’ needs. Headquartered in Istanbul, ÜNLÜ & Co has a staff of more than 350 high caliber professionals, working together for the aim of making ÜNLÜ the leading provider of financial products and servicesfor the entire region. ÜNLÜ & Co provides world class investment advisory and asset management solutions to a diverse client base ranging from domestic and international investors to leading corporates, multinationals and financial institutions.

Koray Pamir ... (+2)
  • Koray Pamir
  • Mehmet Yigit Yorulmaz

Monthly Refining Margin Data (March 2026)

In March, product cracks strengthened sharply, led by middle distillates, diesel cracks (in USD/bbl.) registered at 58.4 (up 35.3 m/m, up 42.9 y/y) and jet fuel cracks registered at 84.4 (up 60.7 m/m, up 70.6 y/y) based on Tupras provided data. Gasoline cracks came to 16.1 (up 2.7 m/m, up 4.4 y/y). HSFO cracks were realized at negative 14.1 (up 1.4 m/m, down 7.7 y/y). We upgraded Tupras to Buy yesterday, as sustained middle-distillate tightness and FCF upside in 2026 are not yet fully priced in,...

Koray Pamir
  • Koray Pamir

Aygaz - Defensive core business, attractive valuation. Upgrade to Buy.

Upgrading to Buy on attractive valuation: We upgrade Aygaz to Buy from Hold and raise our 12-month target price by 27% to TL342/share, implying 47% upside. On our revised forecasts, the stock trades on 8.0x 2026E P/E and offers a 7.5% 2026E dividend yield, which we view as attractive. In our view, the market is still not fully reflecting the higher look-through value of Aygaz’s participation portfolio, while continuing to assign too little value to the company’s core LPG franchise. On our revise...

Koray Pamir
  • Koray Pamir

Tupras - Upgrade to Buy on Persistent Middle-Distillate Tightness and ...

We upgrade Tupras to Buy: We increase our 12M target price by 27% to TL330/share, implying 34% upside. Versus our pre-Iran-related regional conflict estimates, we now forecast FY26E/FY27E EBITDA of USD2.5bn/USD1.8bn and net income of USD1.5bn/USD1.0bn, implying upgrades of 75%/28% and 86%/31%, respectively. Accordingly, while the shares have returned 16% in USD and outperformed the BIST-100 by 28% since the beginning of the conflict, this move only partly reflects the change in the earnings base...

Erol Danis ... (+2)
  • Erol Danis
  • Salih Koseoglu

Model Portfolio Update - Including Türkiye Sigorta to our model portfo...

We are adding Türkiye Sigorta to our Model Portfolio. We believe the company is well positioned to benefit from the current higher interest rate environment while maintaining structural profitability supported by its exposure to the agricultural insurance segment. Higher interest rates should support investment income: Türkiye Sigorta stands to directly benefit from the recent hike in market rates. The TLREF (Turkish Lira Overnight Reference Rate) has risen to around 40% from approximately 37%,...

Koray Pamir ... (+2)
  • Koray Pamir
  • Mehmet Yigit Yorulmaz

Monthly Refining Margin Data (February 2026)

In February, within mid distillates, diesel cracks (in USD/bbl.) registered at 23.1 (up 2.6 m/m, up 3.5 y/y) and jet fuel cracks registered at 23.7 (up 2.6 m/m, up 7.8 y/y) based on Tupras provided data. Gasoline cracks came to 13.4 (up 1.0 m/m, down 1.0 y/y). HSFO cracks were realized at negative 15.5 (up 0.3 m/m, down 9.6 y/y). Differentials were wider m/m. Shares underperformed BIST-100 by 10% and declined by 6% in USD over the past one month. European refining economics stayed soft in Febru...

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