Teb Yatirim - Koc Holding A.S. (KCHOL) Koc Holding (KCHOL TI) - EPS momentum decelerates: Downgrading to Hold

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Teb Yatirim

Ovunc Gursoy

EUR 8.45 For Business Accounts Only

Koc Holding (KCHOL TI) - EPS momentum decelerates: Downgrading to Hold

We have tweaked our target price for Koc Holding to TRY17.75/share. Koc Holding trades at a 7% discount to current NAV, close to its 5Y average of 5%. Despite increasing FY19-20E earnings, we expect EPS momentum to slow down with the deceleration in the Turkish economy, going forward. Our new TP presents limited upside potential, which prompts us to downgrade the stock to HOLD from Buy. With nearly 90% of the valuation from listed subsidiaries and no new sizable acquisitions or projects on the horizon, we recommend waiting for a better entry point to add exposure to the stock.

20/02/2019 13 EN

Underlying

Koc Holding A.S.

Koc Holdings is an investment holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in the business of natural gas, marketing, petroleum shipping, liquefied petroleum gas, power generation, production and trading of petroleum products and mining in the energy sector, production, trading, insurance and car rental in the automotive sector, production and sales, procurement, research and developement in the consumer durables sector, consumer finance, banking, custody, financial consulting, leasing, brokerage, real estate and portfolio management and brokerage banking in the finance sector, and tourism, trading, technology, ship construction and foreign trade in the other sectors.

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TRAKCHOL91Q8 Istanbul Stock Exchange Turkey

Provider

Teb Yatirim

TEB Investment equity research analysts and strategist team consists of 8 analysts with an average finance sector experience of 15 years and special focus on international investors.

With our 6 equity research analysts we cover 93 companies across 21 sectors, reflecting 80% of the total market capitalization of all BIST companies and 86% of the BIST100 companies. Our strategy team provides in depth top-down and bottom-up market views with insight on FX and bond markets by publishing sectoral and strategic reports both in English and Turkish.

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Analysts

Ovunc Gursoy

Other Reports on these Companies

Ünlü&Co

Model Portfolio Update

We believe that Koc Holding offers a wide discount (32% to CNAV), improving reported EPS (likely to be supported by lower monetary losses) coupled with multi-engine subsidiary sequential earnings momentum (YKBNK, TUPRS, FROTO, TOASO) and balance-sheet optionality leading to a credible rerating. We see scope for CNAV gap closure as macro rates drift lower and foreign participation normalizes. Details of our reasoning are: House View on Key Subsidiaries Is Positive: We have a constructive view on Koc Holding’s core subsidiaries, which collectively account for 75% of our Target NAV (“TNAV”). Yap...

EUR 57.48

August 28, 2025 August 28, 2025 1 EN

Ünlü&Co

Koc Holding - Attractive discount to NAV. Higher EPS visibility & quality in 2H25E. Buy.

Increasing 12M TP to TL285, Positive View on Key Subs and 2H25 EPS outlook, Buy Reiterated: We have raised our 12-month target price for Koc Holding (“Koc”) by 4% to TL285/share, implying 59% upside potential (compared to 37% for our full coverage and 34% for our ex-bank coverage). Accordingly, we reiterate our Buy rating on Koc. We maintain a positive view on Koc’s key subsidiaries and consider the 30% discount to its current NAV (“CNAV”) attractive—particularly given the tangible improvement in Turkey’s CDS, which we believe is relevant for Koc due to its proxy status. Despite this, the disc...

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August 1, 2025 August 1, 2025 1 EN

Moody's Investors Service

Moody's Ratings withdraws Koc Holding's ratings

Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has withdrawn all credit ratings of Koc Holding A.S. (Koc Holding), including the Ba3 corporate family rating, Ba3-PD probability of default rating and the Ba3 rating on the company's $750 million senior unsecured notes due in March 2025. The outlook prior to withdrawal was...

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August 8, 2024 August 8, 2024 1 EN

TURKEY STEEL - Strong outlook prevails

We believe Turkish blast-furnace steelmakers are poised for stellar earnings growth in 2021, supported by favourable global steel sector outlook. Following the cut in steel production, owing to fall in demand as a result of Covid-19, steel supply is yet catch up with the pick-up in demand. We expect the supply-demand mismatch to continue over the near term, as we expect strong demand post Covid-19. While the current steel prices may be unsustainable with the normalisation in supply, we believe the robust earnings momentum expected in 1H21 provides enough room for further re-rating.

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Akif Dasıran

Akif Dasıran

Turkcell (TCELL TI) - Investments on the rise: Maintain Hold

Turkcell’s net income soared by 51% y-y to TRY1.2b, beating both RT consensus of TRY1.04b and our TRY975m estimate. EBITDA grew by 16% y-y to TRY3.4b, in-line with our estimate but better than RT consensus of TRY3.2b. Although the operating performance was in-line with our estimate, lower than expected impairment losses on financial and contract assets (TRY49m in 3Q20 vs our estimate of TRY150m) and lower than expected financial expenses boosted the bottom line. Higher operational capex pushed up net debt and impacted the company’s 2020 guidance. Maintain HOLD on TCELL.

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Akif Dasıran

Akif Dasıran

Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi (ULKER TI) - Proven resilience: Maintain Buy

Ulker’s net income increased by 27% y-y to TRY323m in 3Q20, beating both our estimate of TRY249m and RT consensus of TRY239m. The operating performance, in terms of EBITDA growth and margin, was slightly better than our estimate while fair value increase of short-term financial assets further boosted the bottom-line beat. Following upbeat 3Q20 results, we maintain BUY on ULKER, on the back of its attractive valuation and resilient operations.

EUR 10.00

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Koc Holding (KCHOL TI) - EPS momentum decelerates: Downgrading to Hold

Model Portfolio Update

Koc Holding - Attractive discount to NAV. Higher EPS visibility & quality in 2H25E. Buy.

Moody's Ratings withdraws Koc Holding's ratings

TURKEY STEEL - Strong outlook prevails

Turkcell (TCELL TI) - Investments on the rise: Maintain Hold

Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi (ULKER TI) - Proven resilience: Maintain Buy

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