Tellimer provides an integrated suite of services focused on the world's developing markets. It offers world class investment research and local insights; end-to-end content distribution and analytics; market execution and corporate access; brokerage services across Fixed Income and Equities; and expert advisory services.
Tellimer is headquartered in London, UK, with additional offices in Dubai, Lagos, Nairobi, New York and Singapore. It is a division of Exotix Partners LLP.
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The Polish zloty continued to see some of the largest daily currency losses yesterday, down -0.6% against the dollar after the central bank (NBP) implemented a surprise 75bps rate cut on 6 September. With inflation still at 10.1% yoy in the latest July data and October's parliamentary and senate elections just weeks away, the move has prompted accusations of a politically motivated expansionary bias that aims to boost the electoral prospects of the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS), undermi...
Rise in prices supports top-line annually and sequentially while volumes falter on a sequential front; Biscuits segment achieves a record-breaking top-line for the quarter EFID achieved another quarter of sequential revenues growth, recording EGP2,858 mn (+81.7% YoY, +2.8% QoQ) close to our estimates of EGP2,915 mn. The rise was backed annually and sequentially by the rise in ASP to reach EGP3.00/pack (+41.2% YoY, +10.8% QoQ). Volumes waned on a sequential basis to record EGP959 mn packs (+28...
Provisional results from Argentina’s primary elections (PASO) held yesterday show a shock victory for Javier Milei, the radical far-right outsider and anti-establishment candidate of the Libertarian party (LLA), with 30.4% of the vote. In another case of opinion polls getting it wrong, with most recent polls putting him in third place, his share was some 10ppts higher than he was generally expected to get, and reversed the decline in his ratings that had been observed in recent months. But de...
Indonesia is the world's third largest democracy and its general election, for the presidency and parliament, is scheduled for 14 February 2024. Incumbent President Joko Widodo has reached his two-term limit. A second-round run-off between Prabowo Subianto and Ganjar Pranowo is likely. However, there is unlikely to be any major shift in economic policy, a mix of pro market-friendly and populism, foreign policy, with the balance between US security and Chinese economic relations common to most...
Sales surpass our FY 23 forecast; hotel revenue almost doubles * TMGH achieved stellar 2Q23 results, with 2Q23 sales rising 248.7% y/y and 69.5% q/q to EGP20.7 billion, bringing 1H23 sales up 191.0% y/y to EGP32.9 billion. Other than the EGP32.9 billion, sales made for non-TMGH entities in 1H23 recorded EGP18.5 billion, for which TMGH receives commissions. * Revenue in 2Q23 grew 54.1% y/y and 41.3% q/q to EGP6.3 billion, bringing 1H23 revenue up 50.9% y/y to EGP10.7 billion, supported b...
Russia likely to shrug off external noise and advance further. The Russian market recovered on Thursday – RTSI (+0.4% @ 1,454) and IMOEX (+0.2% @ 2,942) – driven largely by domestic corporate events. The ruble finally found traction after being rangebound for most of this week (+0.3% @ 63.72). The oil price slipped slightly lower (Brent -0.5% @ 63.65) after the recent gains. Elsewhere, European markets closed lower (StoxxEuro600 +0.2%) on geopolitical worries. Overnight, US markets conceded ...
KSE-100 rebounded in Sep’19, rising 8% mom, after seven consecutive months of decline (CYTD return -13%). This was led by a status-quo monetary policy and an ensuing decline in money market rates (in longer tenure). Market activity also picked up 11% mom to US$29mn average daily traded value. FIPI remained moderately negative (US$3.5mn outflow), while local mutual funds selling slowed down considerably.
Exotix Pakistan Universe stocks have already rallied 5% (11% in US$-terms) since the general election on 25 July that resulted in Imran Khan’s PTI coming close to an absolute parliamentary majority – a result which exceeded expectations (read our recent note on the Pakistan Election). We think that the downside risks (such as weaker PKR and political uncertainty) are already priced into equities as the KSE100 Index is on a 14% discount to its 5-year average P/BV of 1.5x.
Frontier underperforms in April, lagging Q1 weakness in larger markets. In April to date, MSCI FM is down by 3.5%, underperforming FEM (down 1.2%), EM (down 1.1%) and World (up 1.7%). This is perhaps best explained by the delayed impact, caused by lower liquidity in FM, of all the negative factors which dragged down performance of the larger, more liquid indices in 1Q: fears of more rapid US rate hikes, trade protectionist measures between the US and China, and the appointment of more hawkish US...
A Strong Base Effect Capped Revenue Growth : ETEL reported 3Q19 revenues of EGP6.32 billion, down from EGP7.23 billion in 3Q18 and EGP6.6 billion in 2Q19 (-12.7% YoY, -4.4% QoQ). Retail revenue increased 13.6% YoY and 8.4% QoQ, mainly on a significant increase of 30.3% YoY in Home & Consumer revenues, driven by a 34.4% YoY increase in data revenues and contributing c.43.0% to total revenues. Home and Consumer revenues have offset a YoY decline of 16.7% in Enterprise Solutions revenues.
Global oil prices have surged after the attack on the Saudi Arabian oil facilities on Saturday. There are grave concerns about the viability of Saudi oil supply. Oil prices have risen from US$60/bbl to US$70/bbl in a single session Meanwhile, Singapore and other ASEAN cities are shrouded in a dark haze. Forest fires from Indonesia have driven the Pollutant Standards Index (PSI) to the worst level in three years. The forest fires are allegedly caused by Indonesian palm oil planters burning rain f...
The ‘rest-of-Africa’ segment is making a rising contribution to the group-level growth and profitability of Tier 1 Nigeria banks. We think this should serve as a medium-term tailwind considering challenges in Nigeria. Our top pick on this theme is Zenith, and Nigeria Tier 1 banks generally are at an attractive discount to Africa peers.
Some banks offer a natural hedge against currency devaluation risk due to their net long foreign currency positions, enabling investors to gain exposure to long-term positive fundamentals (demographics, financial inclusion, institutional improvements and so on), while also providing some FX protection.
The rise of the African consumer continues to present a significant opportunity for local and multinational consumer companies operating in the region. However, there is growing frustration among these companies over whether this opportunity will be realised, given disappointing sales growth in the region in recent years. We argue that the challenges and underwhelming performance of most of these companies is not because the opportunity does not exist, but because of their inability to adapt ade...
