TheScreener - PostNL NV (PNL) With a more favourable environment, POSTNL improves to Slightly Positive

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With a more favourable environment, POSTNL improves to Slightly Positive

POSTNL (NL), a company active in the Delivery Services industry, is favoured by a more supportive environment. The independent financial analyst theScreener has confirmed the fundamental rating of the title, which shows 2 out of 4 stars, as well as its unchanged, moderately risky market behaviour. The title leverages a more favourable environment and raises its general evaluation to Slightly Positive. As of the analysis date March 18, 2022, the closing price was EUR 3.63 and its potential was estimated at EUR 4.14.

19/03/2022 1 EN

Underlying

PostNL NV

PostNL is a mail, parcel and e-commerce corporation with operations in the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Belgium, and the United Kingdom. Co. has been assigned by the Dutch government to carry out the UPD (Universele Postdienst, Dutch for Universal Postal Service). Carrying out the UPD requires, amongst other things, Co. to deliver mail throughout the Netherlands five days a week (Tuesday through Saturday) and to maintain enough mailboxes in the country. ACM is charged with monitoring and enforcing the execution by Co. Co.'s operations are organized along three business segments: Mail in the Netherlands; Parcels; and International. Co. maintains over ten networks across thirteen countries.

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NL0009739416 Euronext Amsterdam Netherlands

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We have updated our model post FY24 reporting and we included the restated segment reporting with Real Estate sales and results now included in Parcels versus in MailNL previously. Note that PostNL guided for an underlying EBIT for FY25F of c.€53m, ie, in line with FY24. We estimate €48m, which is a significant downgrade vs the pre-FY24 results estimate of €98m. We feel that the outlook for FY25 is not without downside risk as (a) much will depend on a strong 4Q as we expect a rather soft start to the year, and (b) the positive price/mix PNL guides for at +€65m seems rather challenging to us. ...

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Following the FY24 results, we have significantly lowered our normalized EBIT estimates for 2025 and 2026 by respectively 33% and 43%. Our new estimates assume that the mail segment will become loss making in 2025, only returning to profitability by 2027. However, in order to restore mail profitability, a change in the postal act will be needed. Any delays to these changes could be considered a risk for the stock, while the opposite is true for temporary measures or financial compensation from the Dutch government. We reiterate our Hold but lower our TP from € 1.4 to € 1.0ps.

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With a more favourable environment, POSTNL improves to Slightly Positive

Empowering Investors

PostNL/Model update/HOLD

Benelux Morning Notes

PostNL Urgent regulatory changes were needed yesterday

AC ENERGY CORP increases its risk exposure and slightly lowers to Neutral

With a more favourable environment, VUKILE PROPERTY improves to Positive

An unfavourable environment weighs on ROYAL BAFOKENG PLATINUM, which sees a downgrade to Slightly Negative

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