reports
- Marc Zwartsenburg
- CEFA
PostNL/Mail remains a headache/HOLD
We keep our HOLD rating but lower our target price from €1.20 to €1.10 reflecting our trimmed estimates. As long as we lack visibility on the outcome of the potential relaxation of the delivery model in mail and perhaps compensation for losses in the Universal Service Obligation (USO), we expect that inflationary pressures in Mail will balance out the upside potential in Parcels. This will in our view prevent a re-rating of the shares also as the soft economic outlook combined with intense compe...
- Jean Danjou
- Oliver Metzger
O2D TELEFONICA DEUTSCHLAND HOLDING AG
ETL EUTELSAT COMMUNICATIONS SA
SESGL SES SA FDR (CLASS A)
PROX PROXIMUS SA DE DROIT PUBLIC
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
KPN ROYAL KPN NV
ORA ORANGE SA
OSE OSE IMMUNOTHERAPEUTICS SA
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
SBMO SBM OFFSHORE NV
EN BOUYGUES SA
UTDI UNITED INTERNET AG
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
GAMA GAMMA COMMUNICATIONS
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
PNL POSTNL NV
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
FIE FIELMANN AG
TUB TUBACEX S.A.
AIXA AIXTRON SE
MONC MONCLER SPA
INW INFRASTRUTTURE WIRELESS ITALIANE S.P.A.
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
CLNX CELLNEX TELECOM S.A.
FNTN FREENET AG
JUN3 JUNGHEINRICH AG PREF
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
OBEL ORANGE BELGIUM SA
TEF TELEFONICA SA
NFN NFON AG
DRI 1&1 DRILLISCH AG
JEN JENOPTIK AG
FUR FUGRO NV
- Jean Danjou
- Oliver Metzger
O2D TELEFONICA DEUTSCHLAND HOLDING AG
ETL EUTELSAT COMMUNICATIONS SA
SESGL SES SA FDR (CLASS A)
PROX PROXIMUS SA DE DROIT PUBLIC
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
KPN ROYAL KPN NV
ORA ORANGE SA
OSE OSE IMMUNOTHERAPEUTICS SA
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
SBMO SBM OFFSHORE NV
EN BOUYGUES SA
UTDI UNITED INTERNET AG
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
GAMA GAMMA COMMUNICATIONS
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
PNL POSTNL NV
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
FIE FIELMANN AG
AIXA AIXTRON SE
MONC MONCLER SPA
INW INFRASTRUTTURE WIRELESS ITALIANE S.P.A.
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
CLNX CELLNEX TELECOM S.A.
FNTN FREENET AG
JUN3 JUNGHEINRICH AG PREF
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
OBEL ORANGE BELGIUM SA
TEF TELEFONICA SA
NFN NFON AG
DRI 1&1 DRILLISCH AG
JEN JENOPTIK AG
FUR FUGRO NV
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Ageas: More bidders for ESURE UK ASR: Completion of KNAB sale, starting extra SBB D'Ieteren: Holding financing more costly, 2024 guidance (excluding financing) reassures Ebusco: Released from obligation to deliver 76 buses PostNL: 3Q24 below, FY24 outlook down, mail weak, parcels stronger; CEO steps down Sif Group: Preview - getting ready for 2025 Staffing: US temp volume weaker in October, Aug/Sep revised down, NFP jobs miss
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Michiel Declercq
- Wim Lewi
- Stefano Toffano
- Wim Gille
PostNL : Another tough quarter. CEO to step down in Q2 25
>Normalised EBIT below ccs and AAOBe driven by mix pressures - While Q3 is a relatively small quarter, today’s results highlight once again the company’s structural challenges. Q3 24 group revenue was slightly higher than ccs and our expectations, coming it at € 756m for the quarter. Normalised EBIT was € -18m (€ -12m for Q3 23), much lower than ccs. The quarter was once again marked by a strong unfavourable mix effects in both Parcels and Mail, and continued pressur...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Ahold Delhaize: Preview 3Q24 Econocom: 3Q24 impressive sales of 6%, driven by leasing Greenyard: No Fruit Farm? PostNL: Preview 3Q24F; consensus released; (implied) warning? Randstad: 3Q24 beats 2% on lower opex; outlook 4Q24 c.3/4% below consensus; better than expected; nice strategic and accretive acquisition. UCB: Regains all global rights to Bepranemab. Var Energi: Pressure on costs continues. Events Calendar
- Ahmed Ben Salem
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 10/17/2024
We measured the impact of the contribution from Michel Barnier’s exceptional tax on 88 stocks exposed to France. Some 17 of them would experience a (negative) impact on their EPS of more than 4% on average over 2024 and 2025: LDC (-8.3%), Synergie (-8%), Eiffage (-7.9%), ADP (-7.9%), Dassault Aviation (-7%), Crit (-6.9%), Derichebourg (-6.3%), Hermès (-5.6%), Safran (-5.6%), Bouygues (-5.6%), M6 (-5.2%), Thales (-5%), TF1 (-4.9%), Nexans (-4.9%), Vinci (-4.7%), Compagnie des Alpes (...
FP TOTAL SE
IPN IPSEN SA
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
ALFOC FOCUS HOME INTERACTIVE SA
AUTN AUTONEUM HOLDING AG
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
BFIT BASIC-FIT NV
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
KORI KORIAN SA
HCO HIGHCO SA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BLC BASTIDE LE CONFORT MEDICAL SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
VIRP VIRBAC SA
VETO VETOQUINOL SA
VLS VALNEVA SE
LNA LNA SANTE SA
GBT GUERBET SA
GLO GL EVENTS SA
KER KERING SA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
PNL POSTNL NV
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
TIETO TIETOEVRY OYJ
TECN TECAN GROUP AG
SLIGR SLIGRO FOOD GROUP N.V.
AALB AALBERTS N.V.
MONC MONCLER SPA
BEZ BERENTZEN GRUPPE
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
BP. BP P.L.C.
BIM BIOMERIEUX SA
S92 SMA SOLAR TECHNOLOGY AG
BAR BARCO NV
NA9 NAGARRO
SHEL SHELL PLC
EAPI EUROAPI
ORP ORPEA
- Ahmed Ben Salem
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 17/10/2024
Nous avons mesuré l’impact de la contribution exceptionnelle Barnier sur 88 valeurs exposées à la France. 17 d’entre elles auraient un impact (négatif) sur leurs BPA de plus de 4% en moyenne sur 2024 et 2025 : LDC (-8,3%), Synergie (-8%), Eiffage (-7,9%) ADP (-7,9%), Dassault Aviation (-7%), Crit (-6,9%), Derichebourg (-6,3%), Hermès (-5,6%), Safran (-5,6%), Bouygues (-5,6%), M6 (-5,2%), Thalès (-5%), TF1 (-4,9%), Nexans (-4,9%), Vinci (-4,7%), Compagnie des Alpes (-4,4%), FDJ (-4%). - ...
FP TOTAL SE
IPN IPSEN SA
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
ALFOC FOCUS HOME INTERACTIVE SA
AUTN AUTONEUM HOLDING AG
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
BFIT BASIC-FIT NV
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
KORI KORIAN SA
HCO HIGHCO SA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BLC BASTIDE LE CONFORT MEDICAL SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
VIRP VIRBAC SA
VETO VETOQUINOL SA
VLS VALNEVA SE
LNA LNA SANTE SA
GBT GUERBET SA
GLO GL EVENTS SA
KER KERING SA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
PNL POSTNL NV
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
TIETO TIETOEVRY OYJ
TECN TECAN GROUP AG
SLIGR SLIGRO FOOD GROUP N.V.
AALB AALBERTS N.V.
MONC MONCLER SPA
BEZ BERENTZEN GRUPPE
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
BP. BP P.L.C.
BIM BIOMERIEUX SA
S92 SMA SOLAR TECHNOLOGY AG
BAR BARCO NV
NA9 NAGARRO
SHEL SHELL PLC
EAPI EUROAPI
ORP ORPEA
- Stefano Toffano
- Wim Gille
PostNL : Preview Q3 24 (4 November)
>We lower our near term estimates - PostNL’s results so far this year have been trending below our initial expectations, mainly on the back of negative mix effects and the company’s inability to match inflationary pressures. The company maintained its FY24 outlook (a.o. normalised EBIT of € 80-110m and € 0-40m free cash flow) though we believe these target to be challenging. We remain cautious as the above mentioned trends will continue to impact results, with PostNL ...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
ABN AMRO: NLFI selling down to 30% stake, outlook for below 15%. ASML: 3Q24 results – ouch, that hurts. Gimv: Linking Belgian brewery craftmanship with Dutch commercial spirit. Just Eat Takeaway.com: No order growth yet. PostNL: New CLAs for PostNL employees and for Saturday deliverers
- Marc Zwartsenburg
- CEFA
PostNL/Relaxation of mail business model uncertain/HOLD (previously BU...
We downgrade our rating from Buy to HOLD as one of the key angles to our investment case has become highly uncertain. The latest debate in the Dutch parliament regarding a relaxation of the delivery model in mail and potential for compensation for losses in the Universal Service Obligation was not supported and withdrawn. This was a key potential positive which initially seemed highly likely and now seems at best delayed but without a near-term outcome. This, in our view, will limit PNL's abilit...
- ING Helpdesk
- ING Helpdesk
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Ageas: The Saga continues. ASM International: KKR reportedly interested in ASM PT. D'Ieteren: Belron €8.1bn debt financing at better rates than expected. Elia: Challenges ahead, CEO appointment necessary. Gimv: €150-250m bond issue by Gimv controlling anchor investor WorxInvest. PostNL: Preparation letter on future of Dutch mail market sent to Parliament. Vonovia: Good progress on disposals
- Baptiste Lebacq
- Baptiste Lebacq
- ING Helpdesk
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Michiel Declercq
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Lewi
- Stefano Toffano
- Wim Gille
PostNL : Small, positive developments
>Normalised EBIT above ccs and AAOBe - FY24 remains a year marked by negative mix effects impacting the company’s results. Q2 24 group revenue was in line with ccs and our slightly below our expectations, coming it at € 795m for the quarter. Normalised EBIT was € 18m (€ 17m for Q2 23), an improvement yoy and higher than ccs and AAOBe. Free cash flow generation was negative during the quarter at € -19m, an improvement vs Q2 23 (€ -31m). The quarter was marked by unfa...
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