reports
- Anis Zgaya
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 03/06/2024
We maintain our Outperform rating with an updated (DCF based) price target of €50.5 per share (was €46). The improved (and better than expected) EBITA margin in Building Technology in H2 versus H1 (despite a 3% volume decline) gives us confidence that even with the expected volume headwind in 2024, Aalberts will be able to maintain margins close to the 2023 level with upside if the recovery starts in the latter part of 2024. In Industrial Technology we think Aalberts is overly cautiou...
- Anis Zgaya
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 06/03/2024
We maintain our Outperform rating with an updated (DCF based) price target of €50.5 per share (was €46). The improved (and better than expected) EBITA margin in Building Technology in H2 versus H1 (despite a 3% volume decline) gives us confidence that even with the expected volume headwind in 2024, Aalberts will be able to maintain margins close to the 2023 level with upside if the recovery starts in the latter part of 2024. In Industrial Technology we think Aalberts is overly cautiou...
- Stefano Toffano
- Wim Gille
PostNL : Model update
>Structural challenges remain - PostNL’s FY23 results underscored the structural tough environment the company operates in, as well as its relative inflexibility to address margin pressures. Inflationary pressures (tight labour market, minimum wage increases), unfavourable shifts in product and customer mix at both divisions and PostNL’s inability to price through all cost increases continue to impact the company’s results. Though we appreciate the increased focus on ...
- Michiel Declercq
PostNL Model update post 4Q23 & conference call feedback
PostNL reported a FY23 normalised EBIT of 92m, in line with the preliminary results on January 26th. However, the FY24 normalised EBIT guidance of € 80 – € 100m comes in below both kbcs and css expectations of respectively € 120m & € 118m, driven by a further uptick in labour costs and negative mix effects at parcels. PNL further mentioned that it is becoming increasingly challenging to meet the required cost savings at mail and intends to move away from next day delivery for standard mail over...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Kristof Samoy
- Michiel Declercq
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Lewi
- Stefano Toffano
- Wim Gille
PostNL : The challenging environment leads to light FY24 guidance
>FY23 results pre-released - PostNL already pre-released FY23 group results which were higher than our expectations, but below ccs and (adjusted) guidance. Group revenue for the quarter came in at € 889m and normalised EBIT at € 77m (€ 92m for FY23). Free cash flow generation swung strongly positive during the quarter and came in at € 52m for the full year. The quarter has been ‘saved’ by higher volumes in Mail, which are of one-off character (election related). For F...
- Frank Claassen
PostNL - Rising labour costs weigh heavily on results
• The FY23 results were already pre-released. The new FY24 guidance range misses as higher labour cost weigh more on results than anticipated. • We expect to lower our FY24/25 adjusted EBIT estimates by 10-20%. • Our 2025E SOTP now arrives at EUR 1.35 p/s (was under review). Hold maintained.
- Luis de Toledo Heras
- Luis de Toledo Heras
- Stefano Toffano
- Wim Gille
PostNL : FY23 preview
>FY23 results pre-released - PostNL pre-released FY23 group results which were higher than our expectations, but below ccs and (adjusted) guidance. Group revenue for the quarter came in at € 899m (+3.1% vs AAOBe) and normalised EBIT at € 77m (+10% vs AAOBe and roughly -10% vs BB ccs, € 92m for FY23). Free cash flow generation swung strongly positive during the quarter and came in at € 52m for the full year. The quarter appears to have been ‘saved’ by higher volumes in...
- Jerôme Bodin
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 01/26/2024
Although Argentina was only an anecdotal factor in Puma's profit warning, it has rekindled investors' questions about the impact of the peso's (official) depreciation following the election of Javier Milei last November. Here we recap on the risks faced by the twenty or so companies and sectors with a presence in Argentina within our universe of coverage. While the potential impact is marginal in most cases, it is more significant for: Prosegur, Prosegur Cash, Tenaris, Verallia, Save...
DEC JCDECAUX SA
CGM CEGEDIM SA
VRAP VRANKEN-POMMERY MONOPOLE SA
MRN MERSEN SA
MTU MANITOU BF SA
GLO GL EVENTS SA
ATE ALTEN SA
ALLAN LANSON-BCC
PNL POSTNL NV
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
DLG DE'LONGHI S.P.A.
SIGHT GENSIGHT BIOLOGICS SA
BEZ BERENTZEN GRUPPE
LIGHT SIGNIFY NV
RBO ROCHE BOBOIS INTERNATIONAL SAS
BAR BARCO NV
AERO MONTANA AEROSPACE AG
- Jerôme Bodin
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 26/01/2024
Même si l’Argentine n’est qu’un élément accessoire du profit warning de Puma, il a ravivé les interrogations des investisseurs sur l’impact de la dépréciation du peso (officiel) à la suite de l’élection de Javier Milei en novembre dernier. Nous revenons ici sur les risques encourus par la vingtaine de sociétés et secteurs ayant une présence en Argentine au sein de notre univers de couverture. Si l’impact potentiel est le plus souvent marginal, il est plus matériel chez : Prosegur, Pro...
DEC JCDECAUX SA
CGM CEGEDIM SA
VRAP VRANKEN-POMMERY MONOPOLE SA
MRN MERSEN SA
MTU MANITOU BF SA
GLO GL EVENTS SA
ATE ALTEN SA
ALLAN LANSON-BCC
PNL POSTNL NV
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
DLG DE'LONGHI S.P.A.
SIGHT GENSIGHT BIOLOGICS SA
BEZ BERENTZEN GRUPPE
LIGHT SIGNIFY NV
RBO ROCHE BOBOIS INTERNATIONAL SAS
BAR BARCO NV
AERO MONTANA AEROSPACE AG
- Stefano Toffano
- Wim Gille
PostNL : Q4 23 pre-release
>Results higher than our expectations, but below the (adjusted) guidance - This morning PostNL provided an (unscheduled) update on its Q4 23 and FY performance. Overall it seems that the company continued to experience the same pressures as over the past few quarters: unfavourable mix, higher sick-leave, relative low flexibility to adjust capacity. Group revenue for the quarter came in at € 899m (+3.1% vs AAOBe) and normalised EBIT at c. € 77m (+10% vs AAOBe); this co...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Michiel Declercq
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Michiel Declercq
PostNL First Look: Preliminary normalised EBIT of € 92m, misses guidan...
In a preliminary update, PNL announced that it expects the FY23 normalised EBIT to come in around € 92.0m, or below the updated 3Q23 guidance (“lower end of € 100- € 130m”). The preliminary EBIT also comes in below kbcse of € 96.0m. FCF is nevertheless expected to be strong at € 52.0m (kbcse: € 11.0m) following capex focus and strict working capital management, hereby keeping the leverage around 1.7x. More details on the 4Q23 & FY23 results and outlook for 2024 will be provided on February 26th....
- Frank Claassen
PostNL - Missing guidance, again
• PostNL pre-released FY23 numbers as it missed its latest FY23 guidance range on EBIT. Parcels volumes and mix lagged in Q4, and there was more cost pressure from high illness rates.• FY23 FCF generation was above expectations though. More details on 26 February.• For now, we stick to Hold and put our estimates and TP under review.
- Baptiste Salaville
- Emmanuel Matot
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Marc Lavaud
- Baptiste Salaville
- Emmanuel Matot
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Marc Lavaud
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