ThirdYear Capital is a provider of global macro strategy and portfolios, focusing on systematic countercyclical investing.
For additional information and contact, please refer to our website: http://third-year.com/
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Martin J Rossner
- Martin J Rossner
Martin J Rossner
- Martin J Rossner
Martin J Rossner
- Martin J Rossner
Martin J Rossner
- Martin J Rossner
Martin J Rossner
- Martin J Rossner
Asset Bubble Special Report – Analyzing potential bubbles in equity ...
​In this report, ThirdYear Capital explores potential bubbles in equity and housing markets for 24 countries. The analysis levers methodologies described in two widely cited academic papers from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and the IMF, and makes them forward looking. Key findings are that equities have become more expensive, but are not in a bubble as of yet. House prices are more elevated and have entered bubble territory in some countries.
Martin J Rossner
- Martin J Rossner
Strategy China – Beyond geopolitical headlines, China’s cyclical d...
​The report covers several sources of downward pressure on growth in China: unwinding of the house price growth in major cities, structural downtrend in construction with little cyclical support, increased financial regulation and credit restrictions.
Martin J Rossner
- Martin J Rossner
Martin J Rossner
- Martin J Rossner
Diversified Portfolio – Positioned with a defensive tilt
​Going into April, the strategy maintains a positioning with a defensive tilt. Changes in the exposure are pertaining mainly to the reduced BoP risk in China. Equity exposure is marginally increased and the rates outlook has improved. The portfolio enters a slightly short USD positioning, with the largest long exposures in Asia.
Martin J Rossner
- Martin J Rossner
Global Strategy – Fine-tuning after last month’s change
​After the significant reallocation from equities to bonds last month, the strategy maintains an asset allocation with a defensive tilt and close-to-neutral dollar outlook. The structural outlook remains disinflationary due to the coinciding tightening in the US and China as well as the risks related to China’s likely asset bubble.
Martin J Rossner
- Martin J Rossner
Diversified Portfolio - June Positioning
As a specific guideline for tactical asset allocation, this report provides an overview of the portfolio’s positioning across more than 20 countries and 4 asset classes. It highlights changes, risks and opportunities and reports historical performance. There are typically around 60 investments in the portfolio with a holding period of 6-12 months. The portfolio targets a Sharpe Ratio of 1 and annual returns of 10%.