TYC Best-trade Portfolio
Please find attached the Best-trade Portfolio Report.
The portfolio is built to profit from both the increasingly disinflationary
structural outlook and the short-term potential for reflation in the US,
following the weakened USD and yield curve flattening. Higher FX valuations
limit future growth and inflation in Eurozone, UK and Australia, where the
portfolio is long 10Y bonds. These defensive positions are combined with
short bond trades in the US and long inflation bonds, which provide exposure
to reflationary surprises in the near-term. The equity position is below the
long-term average in size, but still long as the upcoming downturn is still
in its early phase. There is no commodity position due to elevated China
risk, but a long position in gold as cyclical risk is expected to increase.
In currencies, the portfolio is long USD on tactical basis, as the strategy
identifies near-term upside to growth and inflation in the US.
Given the current period of central bank tightening, a number of substantial
structural opportunities have opened up. They will be described in an
upcoming report.