Flash Note: Pakistan Economy: May 2018 CPI at 4.2% YoY
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for May 2018 stood at 4.19% YoY as compared to 3.7% in Apr 2018, which remained slightly lower than market consensus.
- On MoM basis, inflation increased by 0.5% vs. an increase of 1.8% during the previous month.
- Core inflation (non-food & non-energy CPI) remained flat at 7% during the month indicating increased inflationary pressure.
- Food inflation clocked in at 2.1% YoY in May 2018 vs. ~1% rise in the previous month. Food inflation largely remain under control as food inflation was recorded ahead of Ramzan (Ramzan started from mid of May), we believe. Consumption of perishable food items, usually rise in Ramzan; hence we can expect food CPI reading to pick up in Jun 2018. It is to be noted that food inflation holds a major weight of 35% in CPI.
- CPI of Housing, Water & Electricity segments was up 5.5% in May 2018, in line with inflation recorded during the previous month.
- CPI Inflation has now clocked in at 3.8% during 11MFY18 and is anticipated to average below 4% in FY18. This is also significantly lower than the government full year target of 6%.
- Going forward, we expect inflation to average 7% in FY19 as rising oil prices, currency devaluation will exert pressure on CPI.
Topline Securities is one of the fastest-growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong Equity Brokerage, Economic/ Equity Research, Commodity Trading and Corporate Finance & Advisory functions.
Topline Securities has been endowed with numerous awards by renowned international financial organizations. The highlights of which consists of the award for ‘Best Local Brokerage House of Pakistan’ by Asiamoney Brokers Poll (the largest Asia-focused equity services provider poll) in 2016 and ‘Best Equity Brokerage House’ by CFA Society Pakistan in 2015.
Previously, Topline Securities held the title for ‘Best Brokerage House’ for 4 consecutive years (2011-2014) by Asiamoney Brokers Poll. Other awards include the ‘Best Salesperson’ award by Asiamoney for 6 consecutive years (2011-2016), the ‘Arabia Fast Growth 500’ award and ‘Pakistan Fast Growth 100’ award in 2012 and 2013 by AllWorld Network.
JCR-VIS, a credit rating agency providing independent rating services in Pakistan has assigned initial rating of “A-2” for short term and “A” for long term to Topline Securities. Topline Securities is registered as Underwriter, Book Runner and Research Entity with Securities & Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP).
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