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Pakistan COVID-19 - How is it looking for Pakistan in charts?

Pak’s numbers better than world’s averages but below region’s par

• The COVID-19 outbreak is first and foremost a human tragedy, affecting millions of people around the world.
• Pakistan’s first two cases of COVID-19 were recorded on Feb 26, 2020 with the count now going up to 42,125 (as of May 17, 2020) with total of 903 deaths.
• The first 10k cases were reported over a 56-day period, whereas the next three 10k cases were reported over 11, 7, 6 day periods, respectively.
• The number of COVID-19 positive cases in Pakistan can rise to 200,000 by mid-July if ‘effective interventions’ are not taken, the World Health Organization has warned on April 23, 2020.
• Compared to Pakistan government’s estimates at the start of Apr-2020, the increase in cases are lower than anticipated. The federal health ministry had told the Supreme Court on April 5, 2020 that COVID-19 infections in Pakistan may rise to 50,000 by April 25, 2020 – a projection based on the pandemic’s trends in other countries. The actual total cases on April 25, 2020 were 12,723 only.
• Pakistan Minister of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives Asad Umar has also said that the cases of COVID-19 in Pakistan has been 30-35% lower than projections.
• Pakistan Prime Minister has said that they know cases will rise and we will have to live with this virus. 
• The Government of Pakistan had announced a lockdown of the country in the third week of Mar-2020, which has slowly turned into a ‘Smart Lockdown’, where restrictions have slightly eased. Initially, the government eased restrictions on essential services including the construction industry. However, government has further relaxed restrictions from May 9, 2020 which includes opening of small markets, shops etc. The government has also partially opened domestic air travel, while public transport is also being opened gradually.

Pak’s COVID-19 status compared to the Region and World’s averages

• In this report we have done an analysis on data available on COVID-19 for Pakistan, comparing it to the Region and the World’s averages. 
• We have defined the region as similar countries in Asia having population of 80mn+, where we have excluded China, Russia and Japan due to significant differences in demographics and per capita income with Pakistan.
• Our data analysis suggest that on an average Pakistan numbers are not looking favorably when compared to the region (India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Philippines, Vietnam and Iran).
• Per population cases, deaths, testing and infection ratio are worse than the region’s averages.
• That said, the most encouraging element in Pakistan has been the death ratio (calculated as total deaths over closed cases and also over total cases), which is lower compared to the Region and the World’s averages. This can be attributable to Pakistan’s age demographics, where almost 80% of the population is below the age of 40 years.
• Demographic analysis suggests that 20-40 years old in Pakistan are contracting virus the most, whereas over 50 years are susceptible to dying the most.

Pakistan’s rankings have deteriorated over the last month

• Pakistan’s ranking in the world also has deteriorated over the last few weeks which suggests that the effects of COVID-19 is now starting to reflect in Pakistan numbers, which can also be attributable to higher testing in recent days.
• All these numbers in case of Pakistan are starting to deteriorate, whereas improvements have been witnessed in other countries. This is also a function of Pakistan ramping up testing in recent days and also looking to ease lockdown rules.
• Initially, below 100 tests were recorded in Pakistan with that being gradually increased to 3,000/day by early April. Currently, Pakistan has ramped up testing to 14,000/day and government is targeting to reach to 25,000 tests/day by May 31, 2020.
• The health care facilities are also not the best, however Pakistan has done well to increase Isolation beds. But that too will come under severe pressure as these numbers continue to rise.
• Pakistan is looking to build up inventory of ventilators as well, which is reportedly in the vicinity of 4k. If the situation worsens, then access to ventilators for COVID-19 patients will be difficult.

 

Please find attached pdf for more details