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Pakistan Fertilizer: Urea sales to increase by 35% YoY in Nov-2020

  • Pakistan Urea sales in Nov-2020 are expected to increase by 35% YoY to clock in at 513k tons amid low base of last year. However, sales are also expected to register an increase of 24% MoM.
  • To highlight in Nov-2019, Urea sales were down by 23% YoY as farmers/dealers had held back their purchases amidst hike in Urea prices and on anticipation of removal of Gas Infrastructure Development Cess (GIDC).
  • Urea sales during 11M2020 are expected to clock in at 5,139k tons, up 5% YoY.
  • Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qsim (FFBL) is expected to post highest increase in Urea sales by 112% YoY to 60k tons. Engro Fertilizer (EFERT) and Fauji Fertilizer (FFC) sales are likely to increase by 43% YoY and 37% YoY, respectively to 182k tons and 175k tons.
  • Urea production in Nov-2020 is expected to decline by 4% YoY to 515k tons. This will take Urea closing inventory to around 673k tons.
  • Total DAP sales are anticipated to clock in around 410k tons, up 1% YoY. This is likely to take 11M2020 DAP sales to 2,009k tons, up 9% YoY.
  • FFC is likely to record DAP sales of 65k tons (up 72% YoY) followed by FFBL 160k tons (up 18% YoY), while EFERT is likely to record sales of 38k tons (down 67% YoY) in Nov-2020. 

FFBL’s DAP production is expected at 75k tons, taking closing inventory of DAP to around 40k tons.

Provider
Topline Securities Limited
Topline Securities Limited

Topline Securities is one of the fastest-growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong Equity Brokerage, Economic/ Equity Research, Commodity Trading and Corporate Finance & Advisory functions.

Topline Securities has been endowed with numerous awards by renowned international financial organizations. The highlights of which consists of the award for ‘Best Local Brokerage House of Pakistan’ by Asiamoney Brokers Poll (the largest Asia-focused equity services provider poll) in 2016 and ‘Best Equity Brokerage House’ by CFA Society Pakistan in 2015.

Previously, Topline Securities held the title for ‘Best Brokerage House’ for 4 consecutive years (2011-2014) by Asiamoney Brokers Poll. Other awards include the ‘Best Salesperson’ award by Asiamoney for 6 consecutive years (2011-2016), the ‘Arabia Fast Growth 500’ award and ‘Pakistan Fast Growth 100’ award in 2012 and 2013 by AllWorld Network.

JCR-VIS, a credit rating agency providing independent rating services in Pakistan has assigned initial rating of “A-2” for short term and “A” for long term to Topline Securities. Topline Securities is registered as Underwriter, Book Runner and Research Entity with Securities & Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP).

Analysts
Sunny Kummar

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