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Pakistan Politics: Gallup Pakistan's latest poll suggests neck to neck competition between PTI & PML-N

 

• As per the latest Gallup Pakistan Poll published in the newspaper today, PTI has come neck to neck with PML-N on national level, where the party's graph has risen by 1ppts to 25% while PML-N's popularity has drastically come down to 26% from previous 36% in Mar 2018's poll.
• However, according to Pulse Consultant's (leading marketing & opinion research company of Pakistan) Public opinion poll issued along with Gallup's result, PTI takes the lead on national level, gaining popularity of 30% compared to PML-N's popularity at 27% (PTI and PML-N's popularity previously were 23% and 36%, respectively).
• The change in popularity from previous Polls (where PML-N was taking lead) is due to political developments that took place after Dec 2017 as per the polling agencies.
• Major developments were 1) Balochistan Govt. debacle, 2) PML-N losing ground in the Senate elections and 3) defections of PML-N lawmakers to PTI, as per the survey findings.
• Result of both surveys are consistent with our view published in the report titled, 'PTI Likely To Lead the Electoral Battleground', dated 2 Jul, 2018, where we highlighted neck to neck competition between PTI and PML-N with 75% probability of PTI forming the Govt.
• In Punjab province, despite losing grounds by 12ppts, PML-N is still leading with popularity of 43% compared to PTI’s popularity which increased by 14ppts to 34%.