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Pakistan Strategy: COVID-19 update; The Second Wave!

• The new COVID-19 cases in Pakistan have sharply increased to over 1,700/day since mid October when the average increase in COVID-19 cases hovered around the 500/day mark – leading to the so called ‘Second Wave’.
• Concerningly, along with the increase in cases, numbers of deaths have increased at the same pace. The general perception was that in the Second Wave, the rate of deaths will be lower given that the healthcare facilities will be more prepared and the availabilities of drugs like Remdesivir.
• The testing has also remained stagnant at around the 30-32k/day, which were the numbers at around the peak. Hence, tests per new cases have come down significantly.
• It is largely a similar situation worldwide, where cases have increased to 51.81mn and death toll has risen to 1.28mn. The global economies, including the likes of England, France, Germany, Italy, Spain have announced new set of lockdown restrictions starting late October till December.
• These restriction largely include closure/time restrictions on Pubs, Restaurants, Gyms, Cinemas, Wedding Ceremonies etc. However, industrial units and schools will remain open.
• The Government of Pakistan has followed a similar strategy, where it has imposed micro smart lockdowns and have put out a few restrictions on restaurants, wedding halls, commercial markets and recreational spots.
• We believe the Government of Pakistan is highly unlikely to go back to the full lockdown that was imposed back in March, and we believe it will be similar for global economies as well as all the countries have understood the economic cost of lockdowns.

However, we believe these restrictions may become more strict, when the number of deaths increase significantly.