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Robert Savage
- Robert Savage
The Weekly Track redemption
- The Weekly Track - Redemption by Bob Savage /articles/the-weekly-track-redemption/ Spring is about redemption from winter, of hope over doubt, of growth over recession, of assets over liabilities. The week ahead will be about China and its growth and success of the credit induced push from Beijing to regain confidence. The gloom of 4Q seems long gone, much like winter, and the search for redemption of those afraid of another recession is now underway. The pain trade has been in retai...
Robert Savage
- Robert Savage
The Morning Track tgif
- The Morning Track – TGIF by Bob Savage /articles/the-morning-track-tgif/ The movements of everything can be explained. Whether those stories hold true with similar data into the future has yet to be proved. This is the curse of trading fundamentally without an eye also on technical price changes. Note that the two big stories overnight are the culprits for the modest rise in volatility for EUR/JPY and US bonds – with MUFG’s bid for Germany’s DZ Banks aviation arm E5.6bn deal ...
Robert Savage
- Robert Savage
The Morning Track superlatives
- The Morning Track – Superlatives by Bob Savage /articles/the-morning-track-superlatives/ There is nothing ordinary about today. The calm before the storm is the siren call for risk taking. One may come into the office and look at the price action and assume nothing has changed and the world is stuck despite the pictures of black holes from outer space, or the ECB dovish tilt or the FOMC stoic patience or US/China accord on trade deal enforcement or the EU/UK flexible Brexit delay unt...
Robert Savage
- Robert Savage
The Morning Track benign
- The Morning Track - Benign by Bob Savage /articles/the-morning-track-benign/ Most see the low volume, low volatility world of markets as benign, not malignant, despite the scares from inverted yield curves, 4Q price action PTSD and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty from Brexit to US/China to elections from Australia to Israel to India and Spain. Anyone looking down from above would see oil at 5-month highs and China iron ore at record highs grinding against the easy money policy of cen...
Robert Savage
- Robert Savage
The Morning Track soggy
- The Morning Track - Soggy by Bob Savage /articles/the-morning-track-soggy/ April showers….. The week begins with a soggy start as deal hopes for Brexit remain in play with Tory May and Labour Corbyn still trying to patch together an exit deal before April 12th while the EU has to decide to grant them an extension. The US/China talks ended and deal hopes remain without a clear summit or end date. The US military pulls out of Libya while that civil war heats up driving oil prices. Th...
Robert Savage
- Robert Savage
The Morning Track no-more-talking
- The Morning Track – No More Talking by Bob Savage http://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-no-more-talking/ There is a time for everything, talking and listening, investing and taking profit, thinking and doing. August is over and with it many hopes for investors to keep making easy money – with USD rebound being a case in point. Better GDP, better politics with talk of a “huge†infrastructure plan and the pain of Hurricane Harvey leave markets unsettled with the simple vie...
Robert Savage
- Robert Savage
The Morning Track playing-for-time
- The Morning Track - Playing for Time by Bob Savage http://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-playing-for-time/ There is a sense of playing for time in the geopolitical headlines today and with that markets rally as the status quo of brings back the search for yield and the focus on central bankers rather than politics and the threat of war. Japan saw better retail sales – helping spur rebound in shares and a weaker JPY overnight. The swan song from RBNZ Wheeler didn’t’ add much...
Robert Savage
- Robert Savage
The Morning Track stress
- The Morning Track - Stress by Bob Savage http://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-stress/ This is supposed to be the last week of holiday’s but the stress of the world keeps leaking into markets. Geopolitics trumps economics. The North Korean launch of a missile over Japan ratchets up tensions in the region and tests the restraint of the US. Japan calls for an emergency UN Security Council meeting today to discuss further actions. Japan’s Spokesman Suga noted that while North Ko...
Robert Savage
- Robert Savage
The Morning Track blue-dogs
- The Morning Track – Blue Dogs by Bob Savage http://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-blue-dogs/ In the history of post WWII US politics, the role of blue dog democrats was important – with the coalition starting in 1995 during the 104th Congress driving consensus policies for US budgets. These were conservative voting democrats from the South and they had a key role in building bi-partisan agreements until 2010 when they became almost extinct. Blue dogs maybe something to thin...
Robert Savage
- Robert Savage
The Weekly Track left-unsaid
- The Weekly Track - Left Unsaid by Bob Savage http://track.com/articles/the-weekly-track-left-unsaid/ The week past maybe remembered as the last full week of summer vacations for many in the US and Europe. The things that are left undone and unfinished in the bucket lists for vacation maybe the key regret factor for markets ahead. The drivers seem to be similarly, those things that weren’t said by policy makers last week. The end of summer is always bittersweet. The light volumes i...