Trinity Delta Lighthouse: Allergy Therapeutics
Trinity Delta view: Allergy Therapeutics’ FY21 pre-close trading statement has provided an update on the commercial impacts of COVID-19. Due to seasonality H1 typically represents 60-70% of FY revenues, and the robust performance in H121 appears to have continued into H221, although lower spend will have flattered both FY21 operating profit pre-R&D and earnings. However, there are knock on effects into FY22 due to a combination of the reversion of SG&A spend to prior levels, phasing of R&D investment, and a more streamlined commercial portfolio. On the R&D side, we draw attention to a number of important catalysts for key pipeline programmes during calendar H221. We intend to review our forecasts when additional information is available, and continue to value Allergy Therapeutics at £344.5m (53.8p/share), based on sum of the parts including a DCF of the commercial operations (£89.7m or 14.0p/share), an rNPV of the R&D pipeline (£210.3m, or 32.8p/share), and net cash.Allergy Therapeutics is a pharmaceutical group focused on allergy vaccination. Co. mainly sell its products in European countries and its pipeline of products in clinical development includes vaccines for grass, tree and house dust mite, as well as a peanut allergy vaccine in preclinical development. Co. sells a range of aluminium-free allergy vaccines and diagnostics. Co. sells both injectable and sublingual (oral) formats. The commonly prescribed are those for the treatment of pollen related allergies, particularly for allergies to grasses, weeds and trees. Co.'s vaccines trade under various brand names depending on the market, e.g. Pollinex Quattro, Polligoid and TA Graser Top.
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