Arecor Therapeutics: AT278 hits the sweet spot
The detailed data from the successful Phase I study of AT278, Arecor’s ultra-concentrated ultra-rapid insulin, clearly showed improvement and superiority over current fast-acting insulins. This, coupled with highly supportive commentary from a Key Opinion Leader (KOL) event, gives us rising confidence that Arecor’s diabetes franchise is well positioned to capture a meaningful share of the evolving diabetes care market. In-house programmes, AT278 and AT247 (ultra-rapid insulin), can address the needs of both higher dose requirements as the global obesity epidemic drives daily insulin doses upwards and emerging pump applications (artificial pancreas). Revising our rNPV model to reflect this improved confidence sees our valuation increase to £159.8m, or 574p per share (from £140.9m and 506p). We reiterate that Arecor’s development is materially de-risked and significant upside remains, both from the diabetes programmes and from specialty hospital products.
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