Trinity Delta Lighthouse: Futura Medical
Trinity Delta view: Revenues appear to be broadly tracking just ahead of our expectations, even with the challenges of forecasting first launches. Re-ordering patterns will be a key determinant of longer-term success, and whilst visibility is not unexpectedly limited given the early stage of launch, we believe the commitment shown by Cooper through extension of the existing agreement is an encouraging sign and likely reflects initial in-market success and trends, in our view. We continue to believe Futura is uniquely placed within UK healthcare, with a better-than-expected cash position and a clear pathway to profitability and sustainable cash generation from 2025. Our valuation of £363m, equivalent to 121p per share, suggests that the Eroxon opportunity is not reflected in the current share price. Our model includes peak US sales of $350m with partner Haleon and $100-130m in each of Europe and in Other Regions, with the key valuation driver being the peak overall opportunity rather than precise launch timings. Preliminary FY23 results will be released in April.Futura Medical is engaged in the research and development of pharmaceutical drugs and medical devices and their commercial exploitation. Co. focuses on developing products primarily for the consumer healthcare market. Co.'s focus is on sexual healthcare and pain relief. DermaSys® is Co.'s transdermal technology platform, for the absorption of active molecules through the skin. DermaSys® includes MED2002, a topical gel for the treatment of erectile dysfunction; TPR100, a topical diclofenac pain relief gel; TIB200, a topical ibuprofen pain relief gel; and SPR300, a topical methyl salicylate pain relief gel.
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