Viet Dragon Securities

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Trang To
  • Trang To

HDB - Outstanding growth driven by the expansion of non-interest incom...

1Q25 PBT recorded solid growth, driven by a significant increase in non-interest income • Consolidated PBT in 1Q25 reached over VND 5.3 trillion (+31% QoQ, +33% YoY), fulfilling 26% of the full-year PBT target (VND 21.2 trillion). The strong growth was driven by (1) a sharp increase in non-NII (+204% YoY), and (2) well-controlled operating expenses (+3% YoY). • Net interest income growth slowed to 3.5% YoY, mainly due to a quarterly NIM narrowing of 80 bps QoQ to 4.8%. Parent bank credit growt...

Hung Nguyen
  • Hung Nguyen

HAX - MG development and land transaction are the key focus in H2-2025

Q1-FY25: Earnings came in significantly below expectations due to a decline in MBZ distribution market share and margin compression in the MG segment amid the launch of a large number of new MG dealerships. • Net revenue reached VND 959 bn (-7.6% YoY), significantly below projections, entirely due to the sharp decline in the MBZ segment (-28.3% YoY) — a result of both the weakening market share of Mercedes-Benz in Vietnam and HAX’s own distribution share. A bright spot came from strong MG growt...

Phuong Nguyen
  • Phuong Nguyen

MOVING FORWARD

The market continued its upward trend, and despite a cooling-off period during the session, it managed to hold onto high price levels by the end of trading. Liquidity decreased compared to the previous session, indicating that profit-taking supply is showing signs of cooling down after the strong contention in the 1,420 – 1,430 point area. This attempted rally could help the market continue to achieve new highs in the near future. However, it's expected that supply will increase again as the ma...

Quan Cao
  • Quan Cao

Trade – Tariff agreements give Vietnam an advantage in the US market

• Tariff risks have significantly decreased after Vietnam and the US agreed to apply a 20% tax rate on goods manufactured in Vietnam and 40% on transshipped goods. • However, Vietnam and the US have not yet announced a common definition of transshipped goods, leaving uncertainty in how tariffs will be applied to specific sectors. • According to international practice, Vietnam’s processing industries with high localization rates are likely to be subject only to the 20% reciprocal tax rate. • T...

Phuong Nguyen
  • Phuong Nguyen

OVERCOMES CHALLENGES

The market continued its upward trend, and despite strong contention in the 1,420 – 1,430 point area, it still made an effort to slightly break above this area. Liquidity increased compared to the previous session, indicating that investors' profit-taking activities are tending to increase as the market gains points. However, cash flow is still providing supportive momentum for the market and absorbing profit-taking supply. This attempted rally could help the market continue to achieve new hig...

My Tran
  • My Tran

Update on monetary market in Oct 2023

Credit growth for the whole year is estimated at 12%. Interbank interest rates increased again after the most intensive net withdrawal ever from the SBV. The dong continues to depreciate, but the pressure is still under control

Lam Nguyen
  • Lam Nguyen

Macroeconomics Report - June 2023: GDP GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LO...

·         Expecting slow 2Q GDP growth. ·         A review of some policies removing difficulties for real estate and corporate bonds and an expansion of monetary policy.

My Tran
  • My Tran

Update on monetary market in March 2023

Liquidity is still abundant, the SBV stops withdrawing money for 91-day term. Lower interest rates will help improve credit growth. Impact of Fed rate hike in March meeting.

My Tran
  • My Tran

Comments on the SBV’s cut on the regulatory interest rate

The SBV’s cut on the regulatory interest rate The deposit interest rate cooled down A "timely and thoughtful" policy action in the current macro context

My Tran
  • My Tran

Update on monetary market in Feb 2023

With abundant liquidity, the SBV net withdrew in Feb 2023. Deposit interest rates fell on a large scale. "Warming up" the real estate market?!

Phuong Nguyen
  • Phuong Nguyen

6PM Call: Weakness at session-ending

The market continued to test in the overbought zone but also failed.​​​​ It is possible that the market will retreat to the support zone of 1,210 - 1,215 points of the VN-Index before reaching equilibrium. It is expected that the market will need time to fluctuate in the area of 1,210 - 1,240 points before having more specific signals.

Phuong Nguyen
  • Phuong Nguyen

6PM Call: Movement Divergence

Market retested the old peak area but continued to be blocked and returned to equilibrium. It is possible that market will encounter difficulties and need time to fluctuate in the area of 1,230 - 1,245 points in the near future before there are more specific signals.

Son Tran
  • Son Tran

6PM Call: The 1,000-point psychological level

The cash flow witnessed the bottom-fishing actions, waiting for the recovery. However, the price trend has not improved and caused investors to fear buying high-price areas. Therefore, the market has not yet confirmed the rescue and still faces a profound downside risk. If the support level around 1,000 +/- 10 points cannot boost VN-Index to rebound, the index may need to return to the support zone around 970.

Son Tran
  • Son Tran

6PM Call: Efforts to keep balance

Market's downtrend was restrained and created a support signal when VN-Index and VN30-Index retreated to near the support area of ​​1,000 points. The current recovery is still a technical span to test supply and demand and the VN-Index's 1,060 – 1,073 points decrease Gap may still put pressure on the market.

Son Tran
  • Son Tran

6PM Call: Strong volatility in the end

Market plunged and kept its journey to find a new bottommost near the 1,000-point area. However, market saw a cash flow to buy at low prices in the afternoon, "withdrawal" movement accompanied by an increase in order-matching volume that exceeded the 20-day average. However, the status of trading at high price area has not shown any signs of improvement, market still has not confirmed a solid signal for a quality recovery span.

Trang To
  • Trang To

HDB - Outstanding growth driven by the expansion of non-interest incom...

1Q25 PBT recorded solid growth, driven by a significant increase in non-interest income • Consolidated PBT in 1Q25 reached over VND 5.3 trillion (+31% QoQ, +33% YoY), fulfilling 26% of the full-year PBT target (VND 21.2 trillion). The strong growth was driven by (1) a sharp increase in non-NII (+204% YoY), and (2) well-controlled operating expenses (+3% YoY). • Net interest income growth slowed to 3.5% YoY, mainly due to a quarterly NIM narrowing of 80 bps QoQ to 4.8%. Parent bank credit growt...

Hung Nguyen
  • Hung Nguyen

HAX - MG development and land transaction are the key focus in H2-2025

Q1-FY25: Earnings came in significantly below expectations due to a decline in MBZ distribution market share and margin compression in the MG segment amid the launch of a large number of new MG dealerships. • Net revenue reached VND 959 bn (-7.6% YoY), significantly below projections, entirely due to the sharp decline in the MBZ segment (-28.3% YoY) — a result of both the weakening market share of Mercedes-Benz in Vietnam and HAX’s own distribution share. A bright spot came from strong MG growt...

Phuong Nguyen
  • Phuong Nguyen

MOVING FORWARD

The market continued its upward trend, and despite a cooling-off period during the session, it managed to hold onto high price levels by the end of trading. Liquidity decreased compared to the previous session, indicating that profit-taking supply is showing signs of cooling down after the strong contention in the 1,420 – 1,430 point area. This attempted rally could help the market continue to achieve new highs in the near future. However, it's expected that supply will increase again as the ma...

Quan Cao
  • Quan Cao

Trade – Tariff agreements give Vietnam an advantage in the US market

• Tariff risks have significantly decreased after Vietnam and the US agreed to apply a 20% tax rate on goods manufactured in Vietnam and 40% on transshipped goods. • However, Vietnam and the US have not yet announced a common definition of transshipped goods, leaving uncertainty in how tariffs will be applied to specific sectors. • According to international practice, Vietnam’s processing industries with high localization rates are likely to be subject only to the 20% reciprocal tax rate. • T...

Phuong Nguyen
  • Phuong Nguyen

OVERCOMES CHALLENGES

The market continued its upward trend, and despite strong contention in the 1,420 – 1,430 point area, it still made an effort to slightly break above this area. Liquidity increased compared to the previous session, indicating that investors' profit-taking activities are tending to increase as the market gains points. However, cash flow is still providing supportive momentum for the market and absorbing profit-taking supply. This attempted rally could help the market continue to achieve new hig...

SAB - The Giant of Vietnam’s Beer Industry

​“As Vietnam’s largest brewing company, SABECO has various striking advantages among its peers including its well-known brand name and its largest nationwide distribution and production networks. However, the company has seen a slowdown in growth in recent years compared with other competitors, especially with Heineken. However, as many competitors have penetrated into the high-end segment, SABECO’s ability to maintain a high and stable market share in the mid-end segment in the past fou...

6PM Call: Market: Wary - PET and DWG update

​Most of shares mixed and VNIndex struggled at 600 pts. Market stayed balanced most of time. Sellers then became active at banking and financial service stocks such as VCB, BID, CTG, MBB, BVH and SSI. Besides, the declines of other large-cap stocks like VNM and VIC contributed to the sharp drop of market in the afternoon session. As bottom fishers came in late, they only helped to minimize the slip of the indices. At the close, VNIndex lost 4.52 pts and closed lower at 593.96 pts while HNIndex...

6PM Call: Market: Wary - PET and DWG update

Most of shares mixed and VNIndex struggled at 600 pts. Market stayed balanced most of time. Sellers then became active at banking and financial service stocks such as VCB, BID, CTG, MBB, BVH and SSI. Besides, the declines of other large-cap stocks like VNM and VIC contributed to the sharp drop of market in the afternoon session. As bottom fishers came in late, they only helped to minimize the slip of the indices. At the close, VNIndex lost 4.52 pts and closed lower at 593.96 pts while HNIndex we...

Son Tran
  • Son Tran

Investment Strategy Report – April 2022: TAILWINDS FROM AGM AND EARNIN...

“Currently, the abundant of money flows led by F0 investors drive up valuation of mid and small-cap stocks rapidly. However, these stocks quickly faced profit taking pressure when business performance remained sluggish as happened in Q4 2021. Therefore, we foresee further correction if there is no improvement over fundamental prospect after AGM season. Moreover, the incentive of authorities to control market makers in high speculative stocks as happened with FLC case is one inherent signal. Ev...

Son Tran
  • Son Tran

Analyst Pin-board Textile and garment industry – 2022 outlook: Bouncin...

·         Resuming production after 3Q2021 disruptions, we expect that 2022 textile and garment export value will recover strongly, driven by a strong pent-up demand after lockdown in many developed countries. ·         We expect to see high growth for most companies in the industry, but we prefer the ones which completed new factories or have products made from eco-friendly materials.  ·         The market price of textile and garment stocks was adjusted down recently after the strong...

Son Tran
  • Son Tran

Investment Strategy Report – November 2021: MOVE UP BUT BEWARE OF VOLA...

“The clear reactivation of economic activities in Q4 2021 and supporting packages will be likely to boost market sentiment. Looking forward, we foresee the reactivation of economic activities in fourth quarter based on the aforementioned rationale. The support from Government is pivotal to kick off the economy and stock market as well. The Ministry of Planning and Investment has just submitted to the Government a program for economic recovery and development after the Covid-19 epidemic with a ...

Son Tran
  • Son Tran

Special Report – Preliminary 2H2021 outlook

MACRO OUTLOOK: THINGS GET WORSE BEFORE THEY GET BETTER Until now, Vietnam has undergone more than 3 months fierce battle with gradually tightening measures from the government to control the outbreak. On the other hand, strict Covid-19 measures are currently posing a threat to the economic recovery. We estimate that economic sectors are running at below 50% capacity due to the fourth outbreak. Vietnam has rolled out the vaccination drive since 8 Mar, which is relative late to most of its pee...

Son Tran
  • Son Tran

Analyst Pin-board US Announced the Preliminary Results of the Anti-Dum...

The US Department of Commerce on June 3, 2021 announced the preliminary anti-dumping duties on Vietnam’s polyester textured yarn (PTY). STK is taxed at 2.67%. Other Vietnamese companies are taxed at 22.82%. STK produces mainly DTY and FDY yarn, hence is insignificantly affected by the duty.

Son Tran
  • Son Tran

Analyst Pin-board US Dollar as a risk signal. Is it still working?

US inflation (CPI) data released last week were in line with expectations. The US Dollar (USD) reacted negatively but stocks went up. Decorrelation between risk aversion and a strong USD?

My Tran
  • My Tran

Update on monetary market in April 2023

TheSBV continues to support liquidity for the banking system. Credit growth is recovering. Comments on Circular 02-03/2023 of the SBV.

Bernard Lapointe
  • Bernard Lapointe

US: the bond market fears something worse than inflation

The yield curve ended Q1 at its most inverted level since June 1981. The macro impact of the failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and Credit Suisse plus the downgrades of several regional banks has resulted in a crisis of confidence in the banking system.

My Tran
  • My Tran

Update on monetary market in Jan 2023

The deposit-loan gap is at a record low in 2022. System liquidity was stable in January 2023. We expect 2023’s credit growth to be lower than the target of 14-15%.

Bernard Lapointe
  • Bernard Lapointe

Global bond yields

Once inflation expectations become entrenched, it's very hard for central banks to control them. In a month – December- dominated by central bank meetings, the end result was a more hawkish impression despite inflation data for November generally surprising to the downside. Bond yields globally have fallen recently but will move back up in 1Q2023.

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