Report
Oytun Altasli ...
  • Research Team

Turkish Non-financials: In growth we trust (AEFES, ASELS, AYGAZ, BIMAS, BIZIM, CCOLA, DOAS, DOCO, DPEU, EKGYO, ENKAI, EREGL, FROTO, GUBRF, MGROS, OTKAR, PETKM, PGSUS, SAHOL, TKFEN, TOASO, TUPRS, THYAO)

In our previous report, in November 2017, our base-case scenario was another leg up for the market in 1H18E, helped by upside for growth expectations and TRY stability supported by the CBRT, despite the significant volatility at the time. After a brief rally, during which the BIST100 peaked at nearly 20% above its November bottom, it seems we are back to where we started, with the market hit with another bout of currency and interest rate spikes. This time, we believe that the upside in equities is not attractive enough, despite the potential GDP growth upside. The markets could prove us wrong, if the rates come down sharply – for example, via the CBRT’s policy to tame inflation/improved global risk appetite – but we see this as unlikely, given the government’s growth bias and the sizeable risks globally.
Underlyings
Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii A.S.

Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii AS is a Turkey-based company, which is engaged in the production, bottling, selling and distribution of beer under a number of trademarks and also in the production, bottling, selling and distribution of sparkling and still beverages with The Coca-Cola Company trademark. The Group owns and operates more than 14 breweries, over five malt production facilities and over 15 facilities for sparkling and still beverages production. Furthermore, the Group has joint control over Anadolu Etap Penkon Gida ve Tarim Urunleri San. ve Tic. AS (Anadolu Etap) which undertakes production and sales of fruit juice concentrates and purees in Turkey. The Group also has joint control over Syrian Soft Drink Sales & Dist. LLC (SSDSD) which undertakes distribution and sales of sparkling and still beverages in Syria.

Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. Class B

BIM Birlesik Magazalar A.S.

Bim Birlesik Magazalar is engaged in operating retail stores through its retail shops throughout Turkey, which sell an assortment of approx. 600 items, including a number of private labels. Co.'s object is to offer consumers basic food items and consumer goods at discount prices with quality. Co.'s private labels provides its consumers with quality tasting sausage, salami and similar meat products while at the same time being suitable to the consumers family budget. Products include meat products, breakfast and dairy products, beverages, legumes and bakery, snacks and sweets, fruits and vegetables, frozen foods, and non-food items - cleaning supplies.

Bizim Toptan Satis Magazalari AS

Coca-Cola Icecek A.S.

Coca-Cola Icecek is a bottler and distributor of alcohol-free beverages in Turkey, Pakistan, Central Asia and the Middle East. Co. focuses on the production, sales and distribution of sparkling and still beverages with The Coca-Cola Company (TCCC) trademarks. Co. has rights to produce, sell and distribute TCCC branded beverages including Coca-Cola, Coca-Cola Zero, Coca-Cola Light, Fanta, Sprite, Cappy, Sen Sun, Powerade and Fuse Tea in TCCC authorized packages throughout Turkey. Co. also has the right to produce, sell and distribute Burn and Gladiator branded energy drinks throughout Turkey, as well as bottling and distribution rights in Turkey for Schweppes branded beverages.

Dogus Otomotiv Servis ve Ticaret A.S.

Dogus Otomotiv Servis Ve Ticaret is an automotive importer and distributor in Turkey. Co. represents 14 international brands each of which is engaged in the following sectors: Passenger cars, Light commercial vehicles, Heavy commercial vehicles, Industrial and marine engines, and Cooling systems.Co. provides its individual and corporate customers with a portfolio of more than 80 models. Co. competes in the industrial and marine engines market by representing the brand Scania Engines and in the cooling systems market representing Thermo King brand. Co.'s sales and service network is comprised of over 500 contact points.

Emlak Konut Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.g.

Emlak Konut Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi AS (Emlak Konut) is a Turkey-based real estate investment trust. It is engaged in coordinating and executing real estate property projects mostly housing, besides, commercial units, educational units, social facilities, and all related aspects, controlling and building audit services of the ongoing projects, marketing and selling the finished housing. The ultimate parent and ultimate controlling party of the Company is T.C. Basbakanlik Toplu Konut Idaresi Baskanligi (the Housing Development Administration of Turkey, TOKI). The Company's projects include Agaoglu My Towerland, Alemdag Emlak Konutlari, Varyap Meridian, Mavisehir Modern, Spradon Quartz and Gebze Emlak Konutlari.

Enka Insaat ve Sanayi A.S.

Enka Insaat ve Sanayi is an engineering and construction company. Co. operates in the following geographical areas: in Turkey, Co. is engaged in a range of construction activities including construction of industrial and social buildings, motorways and construction and operation of natural gas fired electrical energy generation facilities; in Russian Federation, Georgia, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, Co. is engaged in construction activities and also in investment and development of real estate properties and shopping malls in Moscow, Russia; and in Europe, Co. is engaged in construction and trading activities in Romania, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Germany and Kosovo.

Ford Otomotiv Sanayi A.S.

Ford Otomotiv Sanayi is an automobile manufacturing company based in Turkey. Co. operates as a joint venture between Ford Motor Company and the Koc Group of Companies. Co. is engaged in manufacturing, assembling and selling motor vehicles, primarily commercial vehicles, imports and sells passenger cars and manufactures and imports and sells spare parts of those vehicles. Co. has two plants located in Kocaeli and Eskisehir, has a spare part distribution warehouse in Kartal, Istanbul and a branch in Tubitak Marmara Research Centre, Gebze Campus Technological Free Zone (TEKSEB).

Gubre Fabrikalari T.A.S.

Gubre Fabrikalari TAS (Gubretas) is a Turkey-based company engaged in the production and marketing of chemical fertilizers, including solid fertilizers, liquid fertilizers, powder-based fertilizers and organic fertilizers. It also provides soil analysis services to farmers, advising on the appropriate fertilizer to be used. The Company's production activities are mainly carried out in its Yarimca facilities, consisting of three plants, as well as bagging, warehousing and storage facilities. In addition, liquid and powder-based fertilizers are manufactured in its Izmir plant, and bagging and storage in Izmir, Iskenderun and Samsun. In addition, the Company also offers loading and discharging services. The Company's affiliates and subsidiaries include Razi Petrochemical, Negmar Denizcilik Yatirm AS and Tarkim Bitki Koruma Sanayi ve Ticaret AS, among others.

Haci Omer Sabanci Holding A.S.

Hace Omer Sabanci Holding is the holding company of Sabanci Group. Co. is organized under seven strategic business units: Banking, Tire, Tire Reinforcement Materials and Automotive, Retail, Cement, Energy, and Insurance. Co.'s other activities consists of tourism facilities management, information technology and telecommunication services, and tobacco production and distribution. Co. operates in 18 countries and exports products to Europe, the Middle East, Asia, North Africa, North and South America. Co. has partnerships with international companies such as Ageas, Aviva, Bridgestone, Carrefour, Citigroup, Dia, Heidelberg Cement, International Paper, Philip Morris and Verbund.

Migros Ticaret A.S

Migros Ticaret is a retailing group based in Turkey. Co. offers spacious stores in a wide range of formats and locations whose vast selection of stationery, glass and kitchenware, appliance, book, clothing, and other items along with groceries and other necessities. Co. maintains a store network of 1,004 national and international locations with a national presence in 70 provinces in Turkey's seven geographical regions. Store brand names include M, MM, MMM, 5M, MigroJet, Tansas, Macrocenter and Ramstores. Co. also provides customers alternatives such as internet, call centers, kiosks, catalogues, and mobile shopping networks.

Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi A.S.

Otokar Otomotive Ve Savunma Sanavi is engaged in the import, manufacture, assembly, sale and export of bodies, engines, and all other components of all kinds of land, sea and air defense vehicles, as well as security vehicles, commercial buses, trucks, minibuses, midibuses, panel vans, cross-country vehicles, etc. Co.'s primary focus is on the production of Land Rover 4x4 and minibuses.

Pegasus Hava Tasimaciligi AS

Pegasus Hava Tasimaciligi is a low-cost airline group based in Turkey. Co. provides reasonably-priced transportation opportunities on point-to-point basis in short and medium range flight lines on its domestic and international network. Co. primarily provides transportation opportunities from its main hub in Istanbul Sabiha Gokcen International Airport, but also offers scheduled flights from other domestic hubs, primarily in Adana, Antalya and Izmir. Co.'s fleet is composed of 49 airplanes in total. Co.'s flight network consists of 76 locations (45 abroad and 31 domestic flight locations in 30 countries). Co. also provides cargo services and provides various training services.

Petkim Petrokimya Holding Anonim Sirketi

Petkim Petrokimya Holdings is engaged in the production of petrochemical products. The product portfolio of Co. comprises goods such as thermoplastics, fibers, and raw material for paints, products which constitute primary inputs for a number of industries. These products are also used for the plastic, chemical, packaging, piping, paint, construction, agriculture, automotive, electricity, electronics, and textiles industries, as well as the pharmaceutical, detergent, and cosmetics sectors. Co. sells its products in the domestic market and in international markets.

Tekfen Holding

Tekfen Holding conducts its operations in four main business segments: Contracting, Agriculture, Real Estate and Other operations. Contracting group focuses on construction of petroleum and gas facilities, land and sea terminals, offshore platforms and tank farms. Agricultural group has operations in chemical fertilizer, ground and vegetable grain, production, distribution and trade of seedling and sapling. Real estate group operates in designing, constructing, renting, and sale of real estates such as residents, offices, shopping centers and hotels. Operations of other segment comprise of light-pulp trading, cotton yarn production and trading, insurance services and holding operations.

Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi A.S.

Turk Hava Yollari A.O.

Turk Hava Yollari is engaged in the airline industry with the airline flying to 103 destinations, throughout Turkey and internationally. As of the year end, Co. maintains 66 aircrafts with a total seat capacity of 10,672, and leases a A300-200 cargo aircraft. Co. has various services for their customers which include: various ways of checking in and on-line ticket sales.

Turk Telekomunikasyon A.S.

Turk Telekomuniksayon is an integrated telecommunications company in Turkey. Co.'s principal activities include the provision of local, national, international and mobile telecommunication services, internet products and services, as well as call centre and customer relationship management, technology and information management. Co. has service network and product range in the fields of individual and corporate services. Co. provides services in all 81 cities of Turkey. Co. has two main segments; fixed line and mobile. As of Dec 31 2015, Co. had 12.9 million fixed access lines, 8.0 million broadband and 17.3 million mobile subscribers.

Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S.

Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri is a provider of mobile services in Turkey. Co. provides mobile voice, internet and other services over its mobile communications network. Subscribers can choose between postpaid and prepaid services. Postpaid subscribers sign a subscription contract, and receive monthly bills for services, while prepaid subscribers must purchase a starter pack which consists of a SIM card and inclusive airtime. GSM offers a range of services that include voice, circuit switched data, packet data and fax, in addition to standard service offerings such as call barring, call forwarding, call waiting and roaming into areas serviced by other GSM carriers.

Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S.

Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri is an energy and refining company based in Turkey. Co. is engaged in providing and refining crude oil, the importing and exporting of oil products, and establishing and operating refineries in Turkey and foreign countries. Also, Co. is establishing and operating factories and facilities in the petrochemical industry. Co. is engaged in purchasing, selling, importing, exporting, storing, marketing and distributing (wholesale, retail, foreign and domestic) all kinds of petroleum products, LPG and natural gas. Co. runs its business through the refineries in Izmit, Izmir, Kirikkale and Batman.

Provider
Wood and Company
Wood and Company

WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.

A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.

Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.

We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.

Analysts
Oytun Altasli

Research Team

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