Polish Banks: not done yet (PKO BP, Bank Pekao, Santander BP, mBank, ING BSK, Bank Millennium, Alior Bank, Bank Handlowy)
We keep our constructive view on the Polish banks. We admit that the upside we see is far less than the share price performance last year (WIG Bank index up 119% in the LTM). However, we cannot ignore the single-digit P/Es (our sector median 2024E P/E at 8.3x), in combination with the falling cost of equity, which is, in part, the result of improved sentiment in the country and improving growth expectations. All this is topped up with generous dividend payments this year. The solid earnings outlook and generous dividends are made possible by high capital returns (our 2025-26E headline median ROE is at 16-17%), which result, aside from the dividends, in a strong capital position, allowing for financing volume growth. We have conviction in volume growth (we have plugged in 10%+ of total loan growth in 2025E). We forecast growth to accelerate at the earliest towards the end of 2024E. The current dynamics are far less inspiring, we admit. Developments on this front may lead to market volatility throughout 2024E, as we perceive volume growth as crucial for offsetting the inevitable NIM pressure under the market scenario of falling market interest rates. Last but not least, we believe we are not done with the positive consensus revisions cycle yet. The FX mortgage saga story is fading away slowly for the majority of the banks and the 2023 peak cost levels marked the beginning of the end of the saga’s impact, in our view.Alior Bank is a universal lending and deposit-taking bank which renders services to individuals, legal persons and other entities which are Polish and foreign persons. Co.'s core activities include maintaining bank accounts, granting loans and advances, issuing banking securities and purchasing and selling foreign currency. Co. also conducts brokerage activities, consulting and financial agency services and renders other financial services.
Bank Handlowy W Warszawie is a Polish bank holding company engaged in a wide range of banking services for individuals and corporate customers in the domestic and foreign markets. Additionally Co. operates in brokerage operations, lease services and investment operations. Customers have access to these services at the branches, ATM's, telephone services and electronic banking services.
Bank Millennium provides various banking products and services to individual clients, small businesses, corporate, and public sector entities in Poland. Co. offers current account, custody account, and escrow account; standard deposits, negotiated deposits, millenet deposits, and automatic overnight deposits; debit and charge cards; funds management; professional cash services; and management of balances of current and auxiliary accounts. Co. also provides current account overdraft facility, real estate loans, revolving credits, working capital loans, investment loans, energy financing facility, sureties, line of guarantees, letters-of-credit, preferential loans, and bid bond guarantees.
Bank Polska Kasa Opieki (the Bank) is a commercial bank providing a range of banking services, mainly in Poland. The segments of the Bank are as follows: Retail banking, which comprises all banking activities related to retail customers and small and micro companies; Private banking, which comprises all banking activities related to the affluent individual customers; Corporate and Investment banking, which comprises all banking activities related to the companies, interbank market, debt securities and other instruments; and Assets and Liabilities Management and other, which is engaged in the supervision and monitoring of fund transfers, and other activities centrally managed.
ING Bank Slaski is a bank holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in providing a range of banking services rendered for individual and institutional clients in line with the scope of services outlined in Co.'s charter. Co. runs operations both in the home currency and in foreign currencies. Co. is also active on the domestic and foreign financial markets. The subsidiary, ING Bank Hipoteczny S.A., also runs banking business, including loans secured with mortgage. Additionally through subsidiaries, Co. operates brokerage services, real estate, leasing of real estate and advisory and acts as a financial intermediary as well as provides other financial services.
mBank is a provider of comprehensive corporate banking services in Poland. Co. and its subsidiaries make up the mBank Group which is engaged in offering financial services. Co.'s service offering includes a comprehensive financial offer tailored to the needs of corporate clients, Private Banking clients, and retail clients. The business activities of Co. is conducted in the following business segments: Retail Banking and Corporates and Markets.
PKO Bank Polski is a universal commercial bank offering services to both domestic and foreign retail, corporate and other clients. Co. is licensed to hold foreign exchange and currencies and sell/buy them, as well as perform a full range of foreign exchange services; open and hold bank accounts abroad and to deposit foreign exchange in these accounts. In addition, Co. conducts activities relating to leasing, factoring, electronic settlements via payment cards, as well as renders other financial services. As of Dec 31 2009, Co. had total assets of Zl156,478,685,000 and total deposit of Zl124,628,562,000. Co. operates in the Republic of Poland, Ukraine and Sweden.
Bank Zachodni is a bank seated in Poland. Co. and its subsidiaries provide a range of banking services for individual and business customers and operate in domestic and interbank foreign markets. Additionally, Co. provides also the following services, including intermediation in trading securities, leasing, factoring, asset/ fund management, insurance services, trading in stock and shares of commercial companies, and brokerage activity. Operational activity of Co. and its subsidiaries has been divided into five segments: Retail Banking, Business and Corporate Banking, Global Banking and Markets, ALM (Assets and Liabilities Management) and Centre, as well as Santander Consumer.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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