WOOD Flash – Alkaloid AD Skopje: strong 3Q24 sales and a qoq margin rebound

Alkaloid has reported a solid set of numbers for 3Q24, with top-line growth of 17%, on strong domestic and international sales, particularly in Eastern Europe. Exports, in particular, were driven, we believe, by strong sales of its key antibiotic portfolio – an area where the company has invested heavily in new capacity in recent years – as well as its OTC portfolio. The latter represents the seasonal restocking of cold and flu drugs, and will likely continue through into 4Q. The EBITDA margin rebounded qoq, to 18.6%, vs. 14.2%, albeit helped by seasonally lower sales and marketing costs, but the yoy comparison is still affected negatively by Alkaloid’s participation in a lower-margin government-sponsored cystic fibrosis project. In 9M23, the company delivered c.77% of its FY24E revenues and EBITDA guidance, and 82% of its net profit guidance. We continue to believe that the FY24E guidance will be met, with possible upside from the launch, this quarter, of the first EU sales of its novel omeprazole formulation.