Allegro: August is harvest time (downgraded to HOLD)
We have downgraded Allegro to HOLD (from Buy), with our price target (PT) up slightly, to PLN 42.4/share (from PLN 42.2). The overall e-commerce penetration in Poland has stalled at below the 10% threshold, due to intensive competition from offline (proximity grocery, the roll out of strip malls in Tier-2 locations), and economics erosion, due to the rising costs of online marketing. At the same time, we see Allegro’s quest for breakeven in the international markets being delayed constantly. With softer top-line dynamics, the company has focused more on the costs side of the business, including the dispute with InPost on delivery costs. Cutting our 2025-27E GMV forecasts by 12-24%, we have trimmed our adjusted EBITDA estimates by 14-16%. Following the 35% rally ytd, we see the stock trading at our 2025E EV/EBITDA of 12x, 22% below Amazon, but 8% above the broader e-commerce peers’ median and 40% above InPost. Given the rising risk of Digital Services Tax implementation in Poland, we advise to harvest the profits.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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