Report
Alex Boulougouris, CFA ...
  • Fani Tzioukalia
  • Raffaella Tenconi

Greece: investment grade in the making

Greece posted a solid 2022, with another year of strong GDP recovery (+5%), stable politics and a positive performance for the benchmark ASE Index (+4%), despite the negative global backdrop. Looking into 2023E, the key tailwinds are a stronger local macro outlook, a potential upgrade to investment grade status, the possible return of dividends from the banking sector, and continued earnings upgrades from corporates. The key headwinds are the volatility that could be created during a prolonged election period, the share overhang from the start of the divestments from the HFSF for the banking sector, and risks from the global macro, which could weigh negatively on tourism and exports. We remain bullish on the Greek equities and expect the outperformance to continue, driven by the revival of the banking sector and a solid improvement in earnings in the non-financials space. Our top picks are Eurobank, Piraeus, OPAP and Mytilineos.
Underlyings
Autohellas S.A.

Autohellas is a Hertz national franchisee. Co. is engaged in the rent-a-car segment, comprising of renting (short-term lease) and fleet management (long-term lease and fleet management) in Greece, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Romania, Serbia and Montenegro. Renting covers the needs of both individuals and companies for occasional, small duration rentals up to 1 year long.

Coca-Cola HBC AG

Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Co. produces, sells and distributes an extensive portfolio of non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages. Co.'s business is engaged in producing, selling and distributing non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages under bottlers' agreements with The Coca-Cola Company. In some Territories, Co. also produces, sells, distributes and markets its own brands of juice and Water beverages. In addition, Co. bottles and distributes beer in Bulgaria and Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Co. distributes a selected number of third party premium spirit brands in certain central and eastern European operations.

Eurobank Ergasias Services & Holdings SA

Eurobank Ergasias and its subsidiaries are organized in the following reportable segments: Retail. which incorporates customer current accounts, savings, deposits and investment savings products, credit and debit cards, consumer loans, small business banking and mortgages; Corporate, which incorporates direct debit facilities, current accounts, deposits, overdrafts, loan and other credit facilities, foreign currency and derivative products; Wealth Management, which incorporates private banking services; Global and Capital Markets, which incorporates investment banking services; and International, which incorporates operations in Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Cyprus, Ukraine and Luxembourg.

Fourlis Holdings S.A.

Co. is engaged in the manufacture, import and distribution of electrical household appliances and the manufacture of FOURLIS kitchen hoods. In addition, through a subsidiary, Co. is engaged in the operation of a retail chain.

Gek Terna

GEK Terna Holding Real Estate Construction is a real estate development group based in Greece. Co.'s main activity is the development and management of investment property, the construction of any kind, the management of self-financed or co-financed projects, the construction and management of energy projects, as well as its participation in companies having similar activities. Co. has a significant and specialized presence in construction, energy as well as in the development, management and exploitation of investment property having a strong capital base. Co. is also active in construction and quarry, the industrial segment, metal constructions, and producing skids from armed concrete.

Greek Organisation of Football Prognostics SA

OPAP is engaged in the operating and management of numerical lottery and sports betting games as well as lottery games. Co. holds concession to operate and manage new sports betting games in Greece as well as a right of first refusal to operate and manage any new lottery games permitted by the Hellenic Republic. Co. operates six numerical lottery games, including Joker, Lotto, Proto, Extra 5, Super 3, and Kino; and three sports betting games consisting of Stihima, Propo, and Propo-goal. Co. is also engaged in designing new lottery games, including Bingo and Super 4. Co. distributes its games through an extensive on-line network of agents.

Hellenic Telecommunications Organization SA

Hellenic Telecommunications Organization is a full-service telecommunications group. Co. provides local, long-distance and international fixed-line telecommunications services in Greece and Romania, and mobile telephony services through its Cosmote subsidiary in Greece, as well as in Albania, Bulgaria, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Romania. Co. also provides internet access services and Internet Protocol (IP) -based telecommunications applications, as well as information technology application development and hosting services using IP technologies. Also, Co. provides several other telecommunications services, including value-added services and public telephone services.

Jumbo S.A.

Jumbo is a trading company based in Greece. Co.'s main operation is retail sale of toys, baby items, seasonal items, decoration items, books and stationery. A part of its operations is wholesale of toys and similar items to third parties. Co. and its subsidiaries have four geographical segments: Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria and Romania. At June 30 2015, Co. operated 72 stores in Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria and in Romania and the on line store e-jumbo.

MYTILINEOS S.A.

Mytilineos Holdings is an industrial group engaged in the sectors of Metallurgy, EPC, Energy, and Defence. Co. and its subsidiaries are engaged in three main operating business segments: Metallurgy, Constructions and Energy. Co. and its subsidiaries monitor its performance on Metallurgy and Mining Sector through the subsidiaries Aluminium S.A. (Alumina-Aluminium) and Sometra S.A. (Zinc-Lead). Co., through its subsidiary, METKA S.A., is an EPC Constructor in Greece.

National Bank of Greece S.A. ADS

Piraeus Bank SA

Public Power Corporation S.A.

Public Power Corp. is a vertically intergrated electric utility engaged in electricity generation, transmission and distribution throughout Greece. At Dec 31 2014, Co. and its subsidiaries generated electricity in its own 62 power generating stations of Co. and from the additional stations which belong to its wholly owned subsidiary PPC Renewables S.A, facilitated the transmission of electricity through its own power lines of approximately 12,273 km and distributed electricity to consumers through its own distribution lines for Medium and Low voltage of 235,100 km which are managed by its wholly owned subsidiary Hellenic Distribution Network Operator (HEDNO S.A.) (Medium and Low voltage).

Terna Energy S.A.

Terna Energy is a vertically organized renewable energy sources group based in Greece. Co. is mainly engaged in the energy and construction sector. Co. is active in Wind Energy, as well as Hydroelectric Projects, Solar PV and Integrated Management of Waste to Energy and Biomass Projects. Co. is also engaged in the research for the operation and construction of projects related to other renewable energy sources (RES). Co. maintains a class 6 contractor certificate and its activity in the construction sector relates to the construction of private and public projects as a main contractor or subcontractor or through joint ventures.

Titan Cement Co. SA

Titan Cement Co. and, its subsidiaries (collectively, the Group) are engaged in the production, trade and distribution of a range of construction materials, including cement, concrete, aggregates, cement blocks, dry mortars and fly ash. The Group operates primarily in Greece, the Balkans, Egypt, Turkey and the U.S. The Group operates in 14 countries in Europe, North America and the Eastern Mediterranean and is organized in the following four operating (geographic) segments: Greece and Western Europe, North America, South East Europe, and Eastern Mediterranean.

Provider
Wood and Company
Wood and Company

WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.

A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.

Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.

We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.

Analysts
Alex Boulougouris, CFA

Fani Tzioukalia

Raffaella Tenconi

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