WOOD Flash – Aquila Part Prod Com S.A.: 4Q25 earnings beat, on slowing opex
Last week (27 February), Aquila reported 4Q25 net profit of RON 16.3m, well above our forecast of RON 9.5m, and an EBITDA margin of 65bps, ahead of our forecast (expanding to 5.4%), thanks to a marked deceleration in the pace of personnel costs (+12% yoy, vs. +26% in 9M25), and a relatively low level of provisioning compared to what we expected (RON 2.9m, vs. the RON 8m in our model). Revenues grew 20% yoy, to RON 1,008m, driven by an outstanding 47% yoy increase in the traditional channel, although gas stations and travel retail lagged expectations, due to a slowdown in the sales at one customer (Lukoil). The reduction in the turnover tax to 0.5%, from 1.0%, is another piece of good news from the business, which should affect the bottom line in 2026E positively (Aquila paid effective tax rates of 38% and 24% in 2025 and 2024, respectively; on our 2026E estimates, this should fall to c.11%). The stock was up by as much as 33% in January and, after the recent retreat, is still up 14% ytd. Trading at a 2026E EV/EBITDA of 12.1x, vs. 9.0x for its peers, the scope for near-term stock price appreciation is limited, in our view.
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