Report
Alex Boulougouris, CFA ...
  • Atinc Ozkan
  • Can Demir
  • Jakub Mician

Turkey Macro/Strategy: S400 and CAATSA risk – Geopolitical brinkmanship, or déjà vu 2018?

Following recent statements made by Turkish Minister of Defence H. Akar (22 May, Reuters), confirming that Turkish troops have started their S400 missile operator training in Russia and that the Turkish Ministry of Defence is bracing for possible US sanctions, we believe the risk of Turkey facing US sanctions, under the Countering America’s Adversaries Act (CAATSA) in the near future, has been elevated. In fact, in a letter to his Turkish counterpart (6 June, Bloomberg), acting US Secretary of Defence P. Shanahan announced that, as a result of Turkey’s S400 procurement from Russia, Turkish pilots’ F35 training in the US will be ended by 31 July (the first sign of the US’s plan to exclude Turkey from the F35 programme), and warned that this could be followed by other actions by the US Congress that could undermine Turkey’s ambitious targets in the defence industry and its economic development goals.
Underlyings
Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. Class B

BIM Birlesik Magazalar A.S.

Bim Birlesik Magazalar is engaged in operating retail stores through its retail shops throughout Turkey, which sell an assortment of approx. 600 items, including a number of private labels. Co.'s object is to offer consumers basic food items and consumer goods at discount prices with quality. Co.'s private labels provides its consumers with quality tasting sausage, salami and similar meat products while at the same time being suitable to the consumers family budget. Products include meat products, breakfast and dairy products, beverages, legumes and bakery, snacks and sweets, fruits and vegetables, frozen foods, and non-food items - cleaning supplies.

Coca-Cola Icecek A.S.

Coca-Cola Icecek is a bottler and distributor of alcohol-free beverages in Turkey, Pakistan, Central Asia and the Middle East. Co. focuses on the production, sales and distribution of sparkling and still beverages with The Coca-Cola Company (TCCC) trademarks. Co. has rights to produce, sell and distribute TCCC branded beverages including Coca-Cola, Coca-Cola Zero, Coca-Cola Light, Fanta, Sprite, Cappy, Sen Sun, Powerade and Fuse Tea in TCCC authorized packages throughout Turkey. Co. also has the right to produce, sell and distribute Burn and Gladiator branded energy drinks throughout Turkey, as well as bottling and distribution rights in Turkey for Schweppes branded beverages.

Enka Insaat ve Sanayi A.S.

Enka Insaat ve Sanayi is an engineering and construction company. Co. operates in the following geographical areas: in Turkey, Co. is engaged in a range of construction activities including construction of industrial and social buildings, motorways and construction and operation of natural gas fired electrical energy generation facilities; in Russian Federation, Georgia, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, Co. is engaged in construction activities and also in investment and development of real estate properties and shopping malls in Moscow, Russia; and in Europe, Co. is engaged in construction and trading activities in Romania, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Germany and Kosovo.

Haci Omer Sabanci Holding A.S.

Hace Omer Sabanci Holding is the holding company of Sabanci Group. Co. is organized under seven strategic business units: Banking, Tire, Tire Reinforcement Materials and Automotive, Retail, Cement, Energy, and Insurance. Co.'s other activities consists of tourism facilities management, information technology and telecommunication services, and tobacco production and distribution. Co. operates in 18 countries and exports products to Europe, the Middle East, Asia, North Africa, North and South America. Co. has partnerships with international companies such as Ageas, Aviva, Bridgestone, Carrefour, Citigroup, Dia, Heidelberg Cement, International Paper, Philip Morris and Verbund.

Migros Ticaret A.S

Migros Ticaret is a retailing group based in Turkey. Co. offers spacious stores in a wide range of formats and locations whose vast selection of stationery, glass and kitchenware, appliance, book, clothing, and other items along with groceries and other necessities. Co. maintains a store network of 1,004 national and international locations with a national presence in 70 provinces in Turkey's seven geographical regions. Store brand names include M, MM, MMM, 5M, MigroJet, Tansas, Macrocenter and Ramstores. Co. also provides customers alternatives such as internet, call centers, kiosks, catalogues, and mobile shopping networks.

Sok Marketler Ticaret AS

Sok Marketler Ticaret AS. Sok Marketler Ticaret AS, located in Istanbul, Turkey, owns and operates grocery stores. It sells Amigo, Crown, Deren, Evin, Karmen, Lio, Peki, Piyale and Tempo brands. The Company was founded in 1995.

Tekfen Holding

Tekfen Holding conducts its operations in four main business segments: Contracting, Agriculture, Real Estate and Other operations. Contracting group focuses on construction of petroleum and gas facilities, land and sea terminals, offshore platforms and tank farms. Agricultural group has operations in chemical fertilizer, ground and vegetable grain, production, distribution and trade of seedling and sapling. Real estate group operates in designing, constructing, renting, and sale of real estates such as residents, offices, shopping centers and hotels. Operations of other segment comprise of light-pulp trading, cotton yarn production and trading, insurance services and holding operations.

Turk Hava Yollari A.O.

Turk Hava Yollari is engaged in the airline industry with the airline flying to 103 destinations, throughout Turkey and internationally. As of the year end, Co. maintains 66 aircrafts with a total seat capacity of 10,672, and leases a A300-200 cargo aircraft. Co. has various services for their customers which include: various ways of checking in and on-line ticket sales.

Turk Telekomunikasyon A.S.

Turk Telekomuniksayon is an integrated telecommunications company in Turkey. Co.'s principal activities include the provision of local, national, international and mobile telecommunication services, internet products and services, as well as call centre and customer relationship management, technology and information management. Co. has service network and product range in the fields of individual and corporate services. Co. provides services in all 81 cities of Turkey. Co. has two main segments; fixed line and mobile. As of Dec 31 2015, Co. had 12.9 million fixed access lines, 8.0 million broadband and 17.3 million mobile subscribers.

Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S.

Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri is a provider of mobile services in Turkey. Co. provides mobile voice, internet and other services over its mobile communications network. Subscribers can choose between postpaid and prepaid services. Postpaid subscribers sign a subscription contract, and receive monthly bills for services, while prepaid subscribers must purchase a starter pack which consists of a SIM card and inclusive airtime. GSM offers a range of services that include voice, circuit switched data, packet data and fax, in addition to standard service offerings such as call barring, call forwarding, call waiting and roaming into areas serviced by other GSM carriers.

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi is a private banking group based in Turkey. Co. operates as an integrated financial services group in every segment of the sector including corporate, commercial, SME, payment systems, retail, private and investment banking together with subsidiaries in pension and life insurance, leasing, factoring, brokerage, and asset management. Co. provides a range of financial services to 13 million customers through a distribution network of 994 domestic branches; 6 foreign branches in Cyprus, Luxembourg and Malta; 3 international representative offices in London, Dusseldorf and Shanghai with more than 4,152 ATMs, a Call Center and internet.

Turkiye Halk Bankasi Anonim Sirketi

Turkiye Halk Bankasi (Halkbank) is a banking and financial services company based in Turkey. Co. offers corporate and commercial banking products and services to a range of customers, from individuals to large corporations. Co.'s operations include: consumer and retail banking, consumer loans, credit and debit cards, deposit and overdraft accounts, payroll services, corporate and commercial banking, budget loans, credit line facilities, cash management, investment banking, brokerage, factoring, leasing and insurance services, and tradesmen/SME banking. As of Dec 31 2011, Co. operates 771 branches and had total assets of TL92,160,657,000.

Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S.

Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri is an energy and refining company based in Turkey. Co. is engaged in providing and refining crude oil, the importing and exporting of oil products, and establishing and operating refineries in Turkey and foreign countries. Also, Co. is establishing and operating factories and facilities in the petrochemical industry. Co. is engaged in purchasing, selling, importing, exporting, storing, marketing and distributing (wholesale, retail, foreign and domestic) all kinds of petroleum products, LPG and natural gas. Co. runs its business through the refineries in Izmit, Izmir, Kirikkale and Batman.

Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi A.S.

Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi is a manufacturer and marketer of biscuit, chocolate coated biscuit, wafer, cake and chocolate. Co.'s brands include Potibor, Cizi, Krispi, Haylayf, Mavi YePil, HanYmeller, Bebe BiskUvisi, Biskrem, Krim Kraker, Probis, Cokoprens, As Kraker, Bathak, Ykram, Canpare, Rondo, Altinbasak, Kat Tat, Halley, Kat Kat Tat, Cubuk Kraker, Alpella Ring, Hasat, Bolero, Saklykoy, Dore and Haylayf.

Vestel Beyaz Esya Sanayi ve Ticaret

Vestel Beyaz Esya Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (Vestel Beyaz Esya) is a Turkey-based manufacturer of home appliances, including no-frost, double door, and single door, refrigerators; washing machines with different capacities; air conditioners; ovens with different functions, and dishwashers. The Company operates production facilities in Manisa and Turkey. The Company's marketing and sales activities are carried out by two other group companies, Vestel Dayanikli Tuketim Mallari Pazarlama AS and Vestel Dis Ticaret AS. Vestel Beyaz Esya is a subsidiary of Vestel Group. In January 2014, Vestel Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS, increased its stake in the Company to 92.6%.

Yapi ve Kredi Bankasi A.S.

Yapi Ve Kredi Bankasi is a financial services group. Co. serves its customers through its retail banking segment comprising of individual banking, Small and Medium Size Enterprises banking and card payment systems, corporate and commercial banking as well as private banking and wealth management segments. Co.'s operations are supported by domestic subsidiaries in asset management, brokerage, leasing and factoring as well as international banking subsidiaries in the Netherlands, Russia and Azerbaijan. As of Dec 31 2014, Co. had total assets of TL194.96 billion and total deposits of TL107.63 billion.

Provider
Wood and Company
Wood and Company

WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.

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Analysts
Alex Boulougouris, CFA

Atinc Ozkan

Can Demir

Jakub Mician

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