Report
Lukasz Wachelko, CFA ...
  • Oytun Altasli
  • Research Team

Turkey: Stay defensive, stay tuned (BIMAS, BIZIM, ENKAI, EREGL, FROTO, GUBRF, MGROS, PGSUS, SAHOL, TCELL, THYAO, TKFEN, TOASO, TTKOM, TUPRS)

The unattractive combination of a slowing economy, potential upward pressure on inflation due to TRY depreciation and increasing political/geopolitical risks make it difficult to get excited about Turkish assets in their own right. As a result, Turkey’s derating has been in the making for some time, making valuations look depressed on a number of metrics including against its peers. With little room for successful structural reform execution however, we believe that Turkey’s appeal remains cyclical and relative at best – with higher risk premiums demanded than before due to perceived and real political risks. Given the backdrop, we remain defensive, with a high-quality bias only when we venture out to high-beta names. Among the non-financials, we single out Enka, Migros, Ford Otosan, Sabanci Holding and Tupras as our top picks. Among the banks, we like TSKB from these levels, given its recent underperformance and defensive qualities in bearish markets.
Underlyings
BIM Birlesik Magazalar A.S.

Bim Birlesik Magazalar is engaged in operating retail stores through its retail shops throughout Turkey, which sell an assortment of approx. 600 items, including a number of private labels. Co.'s object is to offer consumers basic food items and consumer goods at discount prices with quality. Co.'s private labels provides its consumers with quality tasting sausage, salami and similar meat products while at the same time being suitable to the consumers family budget. Products include meat products, breakfast and dairy products, beverages, legumes and bakery, snacks and sweets, fruits and vegetables, frozen foods, and non-food items - cleaning supplies.

Bizim Toptan Satis Magazalari AS

Enka Insaat ve Sanayi A.S.

Enka Insaat ve Sanayi is an engineering and construction company. Co. operates in the following geographical areas: in Turkey, Co. is engaged in a range of construction activities including construction of industrial and social buildings, motorways and construction and operation of natural gas fired electrical energy generation facilities; in Russian Federation, Georgia, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, Co. is engaged in construction activities and also in investment and development of real estate properties and shopping malls in Moscow, Russia; and in Europe, Co. is engaged in construction and trading activities in Romania, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Germany and Kosovo.

Eregli Demir ye celik Fabrikalari T.A.S.

Eregli Demir Ve Celik Fabrikalari is engaged in the production of iron and steel rolled products, alloyed and non-alloyed iron, steel and pig iron castings, cast and pressed products, coke and their by-products.

Ford Otomotiv Sanayi A.S.

Ford Otomotiv Sanayi is an automobile manufacturing company based in Turkey. Co. operates as a joint venture between Ford Motor Company and the Koc Group of Companies. Co. is engaged in manufacturing, assembling and selling motor vehicles, primarily commercial vehicles, imports and sells passenger cars and manufactures and imports and sells spare parts of those vehicles. Co. has two plants located in Kocaeli and Eskisehir, has a spare part distribution warehouse in Kartal, Istanbul and a branch in Tubitak Marmara Research Centre, Gebze Campus Technological Free Zone (TEKSEB).

Gubre Fabrikalari T.A.S.

Gubre Fabrikalari TAS (Gubretas) is a Turkey-based company engaged in the production and marketing of chemical fertilizers, including solid fertilizers, liquid fertilizers, powder-based fertilizers and organic fertilizers. It also provides soil analysis services to farmers, advising on the appropriate fertilizer to be used. The Company's production activities are mainly carried out in its Yarimca facilities, consisting of three plants, as well as bagging, warehousing and storage facilities. In addition, liquid and powder-based fertilizers are manufactured in its Izmir plant, and bagging and storage in Izmir, Iskenderun and Samsun. In addition, the Company also offers loading and discharging services. The Company's affiliates and subsidiaries include Razi Petrochemical, Negmar Denizcilik Yatirm AS and Tarkim Bitki Koruma Sanayi ve Ticaret AS, among others.

Haci Omer Sabanci Holding A.S.

Hace Omer Sabanci Holding is the holding company of Sabanci Group. Co. is organized under seven strategic business units: Banking, Tire, Tire Reinforcement Materials and Automotive, Retail, Cement, Energy, and Insurance. Co.'s other activities consists of tourism facilities management, information technology and telecommunication services, and tobacco production and distribution. Co. operates in 18 countries and exports products to Europe, the Middle East, Asia, North Africa, North and South America. Co. has partnerships with international companies such as Ageas, Aviva, Bridgestone, Carrefour, Citigroup, Dia, Heidelberg Cement, International Paper, Philip Morris and Verbund.

Migros Ticaret A.S

Migros Ticaret is a retailing group based in Turkey. Co. offers spacious stores in a wide range of formats and locations whose vast selection of stationery, glass and kitchenware, appliance, book, clothing, and other items along with groceries and other necessities. Co. maintains a store network of 1,004 national and international locations with a national presence in 70 provinces in Turkey's seven geographical regions. Store brand names include M, MM, MMM, 5M, MigroJet, Tansas, Macrocenter and Ramstores. Co. also provides customers alternatives such as internet, call centers, kiosks, catalogues, and mobile shopping networks.

Pegasus Hava Tasimaciligi AS

Pegasus Hava Tasimaciligi is a low-cost airline group based in Turkey. Co. provides reasonably-priced transportation opportunities on point-to-point basis in short and medium range flight lines on its domestic and international network. Co. primarily provides transportation opportunities from its main hub in Istanbul Sabiha Gokcen International Airport, but also offers scheduled flights from other domestic hubs, primarily in Adana, Antalya and Izmir. Co.'s fleet is composed of 49 airplanes in total. Co.'s flight network consists of 76 locations (45 abroad and 31 domestic flight locations in 30 countries). Co. also provides cargo services and provides various training services.

Tekfen Holding

Tekfen Holding conducts its operations in four main business segments: Contracting, Agriculture, Real Estate and Other operations. Contracting group focuses on construction of petroleum and gas facilities, land and sea terminals, offshore platforms and tank farms. Agricultural group has operations in chemical fertilizer, ground and vegetable grain, production, distribution and trade of seedling and sapling. Real estate group operates in designing, constructing, renting, and sale of real estates such as residents, offices, shopping centers and hotels. Operations of other segment comprise of light-pulp trading, cotton yarn production and trading, insurance services and holding operations.

Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi A.S.

Turk Hava Yollari A.O.

Turk Hava Yollari is engaged in the airline industry with the airline flying to 103 destinations, throughout Turkey and internationally. As of the year end, Co. maintains 66 aircrafts with a total seat capacity of 10,672, and leases a A300-200 cargo aircraft. Co. has various services for their customers which include: various ways of checking in and on-line ticket sales.

Turk Telekomunikasyon A.S.

Turk Telekomuniksayon is an integrated telecommunications company in Turkey. Co.'s principal activities include the provision of local, national, international and mobile telecommunication services, internet products and services, as well as call centre and customer relationship management, technology and information management. Co. has service network and product range in the fields of individual and corporate services. Co. provides services in all 81 cities of Turkey. Co. has two main segments; fixed line and mobile. As of Dec 31 2015, Co. had 12.9 million fixed access lines, 8.0 million broadband and 17.3 million mobile subscribers.

Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S.

Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri is a provider of mobile services in Turkey. Co. provides mobile voice, internet and other services over its mobile communications network. Subscribers can choose between postpaid and prepaid services. Postpaid subscribers sign a subscription contract, and receive monthly bills for services, while prepaid subscribers must purchase a starter pack which consists of a SIM card and inclusive airtime. GSM offers a range of services that include voice, circuit switched data, packet data and fax, in addition to standard service offerings such as call barring, call forwarding, call waiting and roaming into areas serviced by other GSM carriers.

Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S.

Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri is an energy and refining company based in Turkey. Co. is engaged in providing and refining crude oil, the importing and exporting of oil products, and establishing and operating refineries in Turkey and foreign countries. Also, Co. is establishing and operating factories and facilities in the petrochemical industry. Co. is engaged in purchasing, selling, importing, exporting, storing, marketing and distributing (wholesale, retail, foreign and domestic) all kinds of petroleum products, LPG and natural gas. Co. runs its business through the refineries in Izmit, Izmir, Kirikkale and Batman.

Provider
Wood and Company
Wood and Company

WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.

A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.

Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.

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Analysts
Lukasz Wachelko, CFA

Oytun Altasli

Research Team

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