Dino: Is this the tipping point? (stays SELL)
We maintain our SELL rating on Dino, rolling over our price target (PT) to PLN 96/share (from PLN 93). We see the company as a perfect play on the fiscal stimulus in Poland, fuelling an impressive 2016-19E EBITDA CAGR of 36%. The market has rewarded this superior growth profile, bringing the consensus 1YF EV/EBITDA to 21x, not only at the top of its global FMCG peers, but already 8% above Amazon. At this crossroads, however, we see a material risk of derating. We expect EBITDA growth to decelerate to a 2019-21E CAGR of 19%, under the pressure of the unprecedented minimum wage expansion nearing 80% by end-2023E and the likely retail tax introduction in 2021E. We estimate that the neutralisation of the double-digit wage expansion would require either a lfl of 19%, or 150bps gross margin expansion.Dino Polska is engaged in the business of retail sale in non-specialized stores with food, beverages and tobacco. In addition, Co. conducts processing of meats and the resulting products are dedicated, in the form of culinary meat, to external recipients within Co.'s retail chain. As of December 31, 2016, Co. operated a network of 628 Dino stores.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.