Report
Aidar Ulan ...
  • Piotr Raciborski, CFA

Ekspress Grupp: click here to subscribe for more digital growth (HOLD - transfer of coverage)

Due to a change in analyst responsibilities, we transfer coverage of Ekspress Grupp with a HOLD rating and a 12M price target (PT) of EUR 1.80/share, or 14% upside. Following its 2Q22 results, we have revised our top line, by increasing our revenue estimates by 4-7% over 2022-24E, to account for: i) the buoyant performance of the digital media segment ytd (2Q22 sales up 26% yoy, and 1H22 sales +23% yoy); and ii) our expectations of a solid peak advertising season in 4Q22E. At the same time, considering the pressure on margins that is beginning to emerge, due to rising opex inflation, we have cut our gross, EBITDA and net profit margins, on average, by c.2ppts, c.1.4ppts and 0.8ppts, respectively, over 2022-24E. Given the deteriorating outlook, we keep a cautious stance on the upcoming 12M, while appreciating the medium-long term growth prospects stemming from the digitalisation of the media segment (namely the growing adoption of subscription-based digital media content).
Underlying
Ekspress Grupp A.S.

Ekspress Grupp AS is an Estonia-based company that is principally engaged in the printing and publishing sector. The Company operates through three segments: Online media, Periodicals and Printing services. The Online media segment provides the administration of online classified portals and intermediation of Internet advertising services. The Periodicals segment is engaged in the publishing of newspaper, magazines, custom publications and books in Estonia and Lithuania. The Printing services segment provides printing and related services. It is active through its subsidiaries, joint ventures and associated companies, including UAB Ekspress Leidyba, UAB Adnet media, AS Express Post, AS Linnaleht and OU Hea Lugu, among others. The Company is active in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Russian Federation and Finland, among others.

Provider
Wood and Company
Wood and Company

WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.

A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.

Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.

We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.

Analysts
Aidar Ulan

Piotr Raciborski, CFA

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