EME Macro/Strategy: As growth slows in 2H, Tokayev presents new reform agenda
Growth remained strong in the first half of the year, standing at 4%, outperforming our 2019E outlook of 3.1%. Even though we still expect a deceleration in the second half of the year, driven by a drop in oil output (due to maintenance at the three main oil fields) and decelerating export growth, we have still increased our GDP estimates to 3.5% in 2019E and 3.0% next year (compared with the consensus of 3.4% in 2019E and 3.2% in 2020E). This forecast assumes an oil price in the USD 50-70/barrel range, and no significant deterioration in the geopolitical and trade tensions involving major trading partners, such as Russia and China.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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