EME Macro/Strategy: CE4 is favoured, but Poland facing a crunch

The July business and consumer surveys released by the European Commission posted further improvements overall – but the road towards a full economic recovery remains challenging across countries and still highly in need of further policy support. In the industrial sector, orders expectations are rebounding rapidly, but export assessment is very weak. The construction sector is holding up better than other segments, but its prospects depend on the willingness of the central banks to loosen credit standards. The services sector has signalled an improvement in orders, but a very cautious stance towards hiring plans generally. In most countries, there is slight downward pressure on expected prices from the services and industrial sectors, bar in Hungary, where services prices appear to be on the way up.