EME Macro/Strategy: CIS plus – resilient, amidst higher global uncertainty

In this report, we update our views and forecasts for Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. Real GDP growth will be lower than in 2023, but at or above the potential growth rate of the respective country, with Georgia most likely reporting the fastest expansion, at 6.0%, this year, on our estimates. The monetary easing cycle is close to the bottom, which should allow for a sustained high real interest rate buffer that will keep inflation steady and contribute to supporting international funding, even in the case of heightened global risk aversity. Overall, we assess the mixture of monetary and fiscal policy strategies as appropriate, even though current account positions remain deep in negative territory for all three. The key risk factors stem from abrupt swings in either commodities prices and/or a worsening of geopolitics.