EME Macro/Strategy: Good news! (Alas, the best is still behind us)
The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) stabilised for the Eurozone in April, following successive months of declines. Hiring intentions in both the manufacturing and construction sectors appear to have been scaled back, while the expected pricing power of producers fell for the fourth month in a row. The softening of the sentiment data has led us to cut our Eurozone growth projections this year by 0.4ppts to 2.3%, while we keep 2019E unchanged at 2%. For Central Europe, the data were a mixed bag. The Czech Republic was the standout performer, with overall sentiment hitting a 10-year high. Hungary saw a slight increase in the ESI and it remains close to its historical high. On the other hand, Poland experienced another softening in overall sentiment, following the strong surge at the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, the decline in Romania continued, with the ESI falling to levels not seen for over three years. On the political front, talks on the formation of the next Czech government have resumed between ANO and CSSD, following an earlier breakdown. In Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Fidesz posted an emphatic victory in April’s parliamentary elections, securing yet another supermajority.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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