EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (10-16 February)
Last week, the headlines revolved around the Munich conference and the initial US steps towards a potential ceasefire in Ukraine. In terms of the macro, the remaining January inflation data revealed upside surprises across CEE, driven by higher food and energy prices, along with strong repricing activity at the start of the year. These were most pronounced in Poland and Hungary, leading us to revise our interest rate forecasts higher. In contrast, Romania saw more stable pricing dynamics, with the 2024 real GDP growth confirmed at an underwhelming 0.9%, below the 2.4% seen in 2023. The data from Türkiye further reinforced our view that growth is gaining momentum, prompting cautious remarks from CBT Governor Karahan. Kazakhstan’s 2024 GDP was above expectations, at 4.8%, with the January data hinting at a strong 2025E.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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