EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (10-16 March)

As the implementation of the EU’s plan for its defence ramp up take shape, we have adjusted our GDP and rates outlook upwards for most countries. The main exceptions are Romania, as fiscal consolidation must have the priority this year, in our view, and the US, as the Atlanta Fed nowcasting model continues to signal GDP at -2.4% in 1Q. Last week, the Central Banks in Poland and Georgia kept the interest rates unchanged. The NBP increased its GDP growth inflation forecasts, while Georgia signalled a potential easing cycle later this year. In Türkiye, retail sales and industrial production were soft, while Hungary’s new retail margin cap aims to ease inflationary pressures. In Kazakhstan, robust economic momentum persists, particularly in transportation and construction.