EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (19-25 June)
The big question in the market is whether or not we are heading for a recession that will last for some time, from the end of the year. The data released for the Eurozone and the CEE confirm the weak domestic demand in 2Q, which is compatible with our current forecasts of slowing, but positive real GDP growth for 2023E and 2024E. The labour markets do not show any consistent sign of weakening, while there is growing evidence that nearshoring is accelerating in Europe – ultimately strengthening our view that the labour market simply cannot, realistically, weaken like in all previous business cycle downswings, if the energy/green transitions, plus nearshoring, move ahead. The next three months, in our view, will be critical for seeing if the central banks are willing and able to guide the economy into a slowdown without a credit crunch, which would be a prerequisite for recession, into 2024E.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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