EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (2-8 June)

The result of the Polish Presidential election (announced on 2 June), led Prime Minister Tusk to call for a vote of confidence, which will take place on 11 June, which we expect to pass. The NBP kept the policy rate unchanged, as expected, but the recent announcement of a drop in the regulated price of gas improves the inflation outlook and increases the odds of an additional 100bps of easing this year. The details of the fiscal adjustment in Romania should be released this week; we see downside risks for the consensus growth expectations, if the magnitude of the package exceeds 1% of the GDP for 2025E. In Türkiye, data are showing, increasingly, a material deceleration of business activity, as a result of the high interest rates, to the benefit of the inflation outlook. In Hungary, Fitch affirmed its credit rating assessment. In CIS, the NBK kept the policy rate unchanged, as expected, given the pick-up in inflation we saw in May. In Uzbekistan, inflation decelerated, but the composition suggests that caution on the sustainability of these gains is highly warranted.