EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (24-30 March)

The EU Commission business surveys for March showed that the industrial sector in the EU is on the mend, with expected orders recovering for a third month in a row in the Eurozone and CEE. Consumer confidence, instead, is signalling, once again, that uncertainty is affecting consumers, and inflation expectations continue to rise in the majority of EU countries. Central Banks’ decisions were in line with expectations. The Monetary Council in the Czech Republic delivered a hawkish hold; and, in Hungary, Governor Varga reiterated a protracted pause, as inflation will return to target only in 2026E, according to the NBH’s forecasts. In Türkiye, the protests continue, following the imprisonment of Istanbul mayor and CHP’s presidential candidate, Ekrem İmamoğlu. Meanwhile, Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party moved to petition the Constitutional Court to ban opposition parties linked to the United National Movement, introducing the "successor parties law" ahead of the elections.