Wood and Company - EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (28 July-3 August)

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Wood and Company

Alessio Chiesa ...

Raffaella Tenconi

EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (28 July-3 August)

The July sentiment indices released by the EU Commission proved better than we had feared, on the margin. The industrial sector continues to reveal tentative signs of recovery, this time in Germany as well. Households continue to signal the challenges of persistently brisk inflation, but high savings cushions, which points to a continuation of the status quo. In Poland, inflation dropped back to the NBP’s target corridor, strengthening the case for another 25bps rate reduction soon. In Romania, the budget deficit widened to 3.9% of GDP in the first half of the year, in line with expectations. In Hungary, the data for 2Q and 3Q remain underwhelming overall, but we still expect to see signs of a revival towards the year-end, as the demand for electric vehicles should ameliorate. In Georgia, the Central Bank kept the policy rate unchanged, at 8.00%, given the brisk inflation and strong economic activity.

04/08/2025 1 EN

Provider

Wood and Company

WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.

A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.

Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.

We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.

See profile

Analysts

Alessio Chiesa

Raffaella Tenconi

Other Reports from Wood and Company

Dmitry Vlasov

Dmitry Vlasov

WOOD Flash – Gentoo Media: 2Q25 financial results review – another weak quarter, with updated guidance implying downside for our estimates

Gentoo Media reported its 2Q25 financial results this morning (26 August), with 13% and 23% misses on the revenue and adjusted EBITDA, respectively, vs. our estimates. The company provided its updated 2025E guidance: revenue of EUR 100-105m and adjusted EBITDA of EUR 40-43m, which implies a 40-41% EBITDA margin and EUR 27-30m of free cash flow from operations. The updated guidance is lower than the previous guidance, provided in 1Q25, when the company expected the revenue to be in line with 2024 (c.EUR 123m) and an EBITDA margin of 40-45%. The new guidance implies meaningful downside of 14-18%...

16h / 17m 16h / 17m 1 EN

Miguel Dias

Miguel Dias

WOOD Flash – Banca Transilvania: small bottom-line miss in 2Q25, due mostly to lower-than-expected core income and higher provisions booked

Banca Transilvania (TLV) reported its 2Q25 results this morning (26 August), posting shareholder net profit of RON 1,087m (+10% yoy), a small (4%) miss vs. our expectations. The NII and NFC were below expectations, but offset partially by a better other income delivery. Costs were in line, and the provisions booked were the major source of the delta, but were also offset partially by the lower net profit attributable to minorities. All-in-all, we view the results as slightly negative, due to the rather underwhelming core income delivery. With this print, TLV is trailing slightly behind our FY2...

18h 18h 1 EN

Research Team

Research Team

WOOD Daily: TEN PW; GPP PW; BFT PW; AKCNS TI; M RO

HEADLINES: • Ten Square Games: 2Q25 adjusted EBITDA down 11% qoq, 4-9% above expectations POSITIVE • Grupa Pracuj: 2Q25 results – adjusted EBITDA up 3% yoy, in line with our forecast, 3% above the consensus NEUTRAL • Benefit Systems: 2Q25 earnings call takeaways – supportive of the 2026E outlook NEUTRAL • Akcansa: competition investigation launched NEGATIVE • MedLife: 2Q25E results preview (due on 29 August)

23h / 56m 23h / 56m 1 EN

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EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (28 July-3 August)

WOOD Flash – Gentoo Media: 2Q25 financial results review – another weak quarter, with updated guidance implying downside for our estimates

WOOD Flash – Banca Transilvania: small bottom-line miss in 2Q25, due mostly to lower-than-expected core income and higher provisions booked

WOOD Daily: TEN PW; GPP PW; BFT PW; AKCNS TI; M RO

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