EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (3-9 February)

Trade tariffs from the Trump administration dominated last week’s newsflow, with Canada and Mexico receiving temporary relief, while China responded with mild countermeasures. In Europe, the CNB reduced the policy rate by 25bps, while the NBP held rates steady, with Governor Glapinski reaffirming the hawkish stance. Meanwhile, the first batch of January inflation data from the Czech Republic and Türkiye indicated mild increases, due to repricing activity. This prompted a modest upward revision to Türkiye’s inflation forecast by the Central Bank, with Governor Karahan emphasising a cautious approach. In the CIS space, Georgia’s protests continued, while GD pushed stricter laws on demonstrations and escalated its rhetoric. In Kazakhstan, inflation rose to 8.9% in January, with a weaker KZT driving price increases, although the services PMI showed a business expansion – good growth dynamics for the first month of the year. Lastly, Uzbekistan’s 9.9% annual inflation was fuelled by utilities, food, and healthcare, despite easing fruit and vegetable prices.