EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (30 September-6 October)

Last week, the EU voted to impose tariffs on Chinese EVs, which adds further downside risks to trade for Europe, as China is likely to retaliate. September inflation was released in Türkiye, revealing disappointing progress, which led to a pushback on rate cut expectations from the CBT Governor. In Poland, Governor Glapinski switched to a dovish tone following the MPC meeting, signalling that March could be the potential timeframe for resuming the easing cycle. In Romania, the Monetary Council kept the policy rate unchanged under the renewed tenure of Governor Isarescu, while press reports added to the evidence that the fiscal results will be poor this year. In contrast, budget execution in the Czech Republic is proceeding in line with the target. Lastly, September inflation figures were released across the CIS, showing a slowdown, driven by oil prices. In Kazakhstan, the referendum on nuclear power saw 69.8% support, as per the exit polls.