EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (4-10 August)

Last week, the highlight was the US new tariffs from 15% to 39% on imports from over 60 countries, the steepest since the 1930s, while the talks with China remain tentative and a potential Trump-Xi meeting is on the table. Concerning the US-EU trade agreement, we note that, given President Trump’s style of negotiations, this agreement was unlikely to last indefinitely, and his recent comments show that there might be revisions ahead. Armenia and Azerbaijan have signed a US-brokered peace deal, outlining steps towards a normalisation and the development of the Zangezur corridor. This deal is, indeed, a positive development and strengthens the feasibility of the Middle Corridor. In the Czech Republic, the MPC maintained a hawkish pause, reinforcing our view that the easing cycle has run its course. NBR conveyed a dovish hold amid growth negative impact from the fiscal package. July’s inflation prints were released across Czechia, Hungary, Türkiye and Greece, broadly underscoring the upside risks from food inflation.