EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (6-12 November)

The retail sales data released last week for September showed stagnant performances across countries, notwithstanding that real wage growth has been positive in many EEMEA countries for a few months. In our view, there is now sufficient evidence to suggest that the tight labour market in Europe is not nearly as inflationary as historical experience would suggest, and that a genuine improvement in consumption will require more time and ample real wage growth. The Central Bank decisions last week revealed pauses from the NBP in Poland and the NBR in Romania. In Georgia, the IMF programme will be, reportedly, reactivated, as a signal that the independence of the Central Bank is protected; and, separately, the EU Commission recommended the inclusion of Georgia in the list of potential candidate countries for the EU, in line with what was done for Moldova and Ukraine earlier, in the spring.