EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (7-13 April)

Last week, the suspension of the new US tariffs for 90 days provided limited relief, but insufficient, in our view, to avert GDP contraction risks in the US in 1Q, and possibly 2Q. Potential positive developments hinge on further decisions regarding the semiconductor tariffs. Central Banks’ actions reflected persistent inflation concerns, amidst heightened global uncertainties. The NBK maintained the policy rate at 16.5%, and the NBR also held its policy rate steady, at 6.50%. Greece showed encouraging economic signals in early-1Q, but is facing rising political uncertainty, as the strikes and the support for a new left-leaning party gain momentum. Hungary stood out positively, as inflation moderated, notably, to 4.7%. Political tensions persist in Georgia, with the opposition threatening to boycott the local elections this year.