EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (7-13 October)

Last week, the final batch of retail sales data was released for August, signalling a modest improvement in household spending for 3Q, which remains constrained by weak consumer confidence. The drag from confidence is likely to spill over to next year; hence, we are not overly optimistic on consumption leading the charge for growth in 1H25E. Eurostat’s house price data for 2Q showed further increases vs. last year’s low. September’s inflation prints across CEE and Greece reflected gains from lower oil prices, which were offset partly by rising food inflation, driven by droughts. In Türkiye, the constructive data flow continued, with the current account deficit narrowing materially, on the back of a nascent trade surplus. Lastly, the MPC in Kazakhstan held the policy rate unchanged, at 14.75%.