EME Macro/Strategy: macro projections – Poland (2023-24E)

This chartbook contains our latest macro projections for 2023/2024E and the most important charts on business and consumer confidence, labour market developments, balance of payments and fiscal execution.
We have mildly upgraded our 2023E GDP outlook to 0.8%, a fairly underwhelming prospect for Poland and relative to its regional peers. This is motivated by a pronounced moderation in households’ borrowing patterns currently, which suggests that households prefer to pay down debt at this juncture, rather than to smooth consumption, as we see in most of Europe. Poland appears unable to unlock the EU recovery and resilience funds promptly this year, which puts the country at a disadvantage on the investment front relative to the rest of the EU. In addition, the effect of the Ukrainian immigration wave was a significant boost for consumption in 2022, but will work as a high base effect for 2023E, putting a lid on the consumption outlook this year. A shallower growth performance this year could prove very helpful in mitigating inflation risks, which will, in any case, reflect persistent high wage growth and high real estate cost pressures.