EME Macro/Strategy: Poland – soon(ish) to be a trillion EUR economy
President Andrej Duda has set the date of the general elections as 15 October. This date is what the media and analysts have been best guessing for months, so it is not a surprise, but heralds the final stretch of the election campaign. Many surprises can still materialise on the election outlook but, regardless of the leader of the next government, the economy appears to be on a very robust track for many more years of fast nominal GDP growth, which would allow Poland into the EUR 1trn GDP EU club by 2026E, in our view. The path to this goal, in our view, implies a coming improvement in household spending, as signalled by consumer surveys, and a bumpy, but steady, investment cycle continuing to unfold. In this report, we discuss the plausible election results and implications, as well as the monetary policy outlook.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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