EME Macro/Strategy: reassessing the inflation and rates outlook to 2025E eop
We have refined our forecasts for inflation and rates for the global backdrop, Greece and the CE4, and extended our projections to 2025E. The changes incorporate the latest data and increasing geopolitical disruptions, which we reflect primarily in higher assumed crude prices. In the EU, the business surveys show that industrial production could disappoint in 2Q, delaying a more visible recovery to 4Q this year and into 2025E. We have refreshed our retail sales models, which confirm an improvement ahead in Europe and a continuation of quite resilient spending in the US in the foreseeable future. For the US, we flag that there is still scope for upward adjustments to the consensus projections for 2024E and 2025E, but the scope is much narrower that in the past six months, and a soft landing, in our view, remains conditional on the Fed’s easing cycle starting this year.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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