EME Macro/Strategy: reflections on the consequences of a weak Germany
Recently, we have been asked, frequently, about the potential consequences of a recession in Germany for Central and Eastern Europe. In this report, we broaden this question and provide our reflections on the probable consequences of Germany enduring a protracted near stagnation in the coming years. Nominal GDP growth in the CEE will probably be slower, going forward; as a result, we have trimmed the pace of recovery next year and cut our inflation projections. The risk has shifted towards lower interest rates in the Euro area and CEE compared with what the market is discounting. Wage dynamics should continue to be favourable in EEMEA, but are likely to stagnate in Germany, going forward. The EU political backdrop may turn slower, with Germany in a protracted stagnation and France in a political stalemate.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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