EME Macro/Strategy: Türkiye – notes from our trip, and revised forecasts
We visited Türkiye at the beginning of March, and we came back optimistic on the progress towards macro policy normalisation, even before the latest CBT rate hikes. Still, the risks of a U-turn remain, as this is a multi-year transition, and the most difficult year will be 2025E. At this stage, the economy is decelerating modestly, but not enough for inflation to align with the Central Bank’s projections. The local financial institutions’ expectation is that real GDP will decelerate towards a range of 2-3% this year, while we expect faster growth, around 3.5%. A true slowdown could follow in 2025E, if the current stance is kept unchanged, in our view. A faster improvement on the inflation front, at the expense of growth, would be possible only with a much tighter fiscal stance, which we do not see the authorities as ready to take.
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