EME Macro/Strategy: Turkey – pushing against the inevitable
The latest available data suggest that the economy has picked up momentum and could surprise the consensus to the upside this year. The currency stability seen since the beginning of the year is temporary in nature, in our view, and there is no compelling argument on how stable the Lira will be, given that the global environment that can change abruptly for funding. Adding an aggressive Fed to the equation, the upside for the Lira could be all the way up to 30 vs. the USD, by the end of next year. Inflation will continue to rise in the coming months and a corrective action will require a real slowdown, which is not possible without having positive real policy rates for a sufficient period of time.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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